While the writer of this post figures the team is better off standing pat, there’s enough chatter to suggest the Giants have figured otherwise.
We’re not sure what the San Francisco Giants will do here in the next 26ish hours before MLB’s Trade Deadline tomorrow at 3pm and this post will very likely curdle within a couple of hours after going up, but the questionably reliable Jim Bowden tucked away this nugget in The Athletic’s trade deadline live blog that got my interest:
The Giants also continue to listen — with intent to upgrade, not downgrade — on Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores.
If this is just idle speculation, then I’m a sucker of the highest order. We’ve heard similar reporting that the Giants have made these three specific players available, which doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re looking to upgrade on those players by adding from outside the organization. Upgrade could simply mean giving current prospects a shot at their positions… but what if the Giants are looking to add to their lineup? What if they’ve made Blake Snell available — or, at least, are listening to offers — but think that moving him doesn’t fully tank their chances now that Robbie Ray is back, Hayden Birdsong looks legit, and Alex Cobb might be able to help?
If they’ve made that calculation then I don’t need to do much rationalizing to see how standing pat is foolhardy when there’s a deal or two to be made. Maybe the Giants can buy and sell at the same time. Maybe it’s just as simple as compartmentalization. Trading Snell is a separate issue from upgrading the lineup. Let’s put Conforto, Yaz, and Wilmer in Bucket A and Blake Snell in Bucket B.
In the case of Bucket A, they wouldn’t be looking to upgrade all three positions (LF, RF, 1B/DH), but find one player who’s better than all three. It doesn’t mean trading any of them for that upgrade, either. They could still sent away Conforto and his entire deal for a PTBNL or a minor league reliever or whatever. They could still trade prospects or swap salaries to get a legit major league starting bat while keeping 1, 2, or all 3 those guys. It’s probably two bits of news that Bowden is conflating into a single instance, but it doesn’t change the possibility that the Giants are looking to see if the market will help them upgrade.
Now we move to Bucket B. It’d be a lot easier for the Giants to trade Blake Snell for a bat that upgrades on Conforto, Yaz, and Wilmer Flores, although it necessarily limits the future help that transaction could provide the team. Here are four players I’ve identified who might be in the mix if upgrade means “add player from outside the organization.”
Anthony Santander – OF/DH, Baltimore
As much as I said that trading Snell is a separate issue, let’s at least consider the possibility of the team killing two birds with one stone and get it out of the way first.
If the rumor of the Baltimore Orioles having interest in Blake Snell is true, then the switch-hitting Santander makes the most sense as a lineup upgrade. The 29-year old outfielder/designated hitter is in his final year before free agency, with an $11.7 million salary, leaving about $3.9 million the rest of the way. The problem, of course, is that he’s one of Baltimore’s three best hitters, with a .520 slugging percentage and a team-leading 29 home runs. His 131 wRC+ is 23rd in MLB and he’s done it all with a .227 BAbip.
On the other hand, maybe Yastrzemski goes with Snell? Yaz’s defense doesn’t close the value gap with Santander (that’s how good Santander’s bat is) but maybe the WAR projection for the final two months of Snell plus Yaz (two players the O’s could, in theory, keep next season) roughly equals or exceeds Santander (who’s gone after the year)?
Nah. I can’t see the Orioles wanting to give up the draft pick compensation they’ll get after the season or give up 29 home runs in the midst of a playoff push and turning things over to Heston Kjerstad or even Yastrzemski.
So, yeah, this trade would never happen.
A really good Snell trade for the Giants would likely need to involve prospects who couldn’t help this season. That doesn’t mean Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, but Santander for Snell straight up wouldn’t make sense for either team and so it’d be better for the Giants to just hold on to Snell if that’s all that was on offer — which, again, it wouldn’t. So, really, the idea of using Snell to get that bat upgrade to help in 2024 seems very unlikely.
Cedric Mullins – OF, Baltimore
On the other hand, the Orioles would rather find someone to take Cedric Mullins’ .219/.265/.394 and $2.1 million owed. Since the break, he’s slashing .286/.375/.667 with a pair of home runs and a pair of doubles, and going back to just June 1st, he has a 122 wRC+. He doesn’t walk much and strikes out. Because all hitting is down this season, his split against righties winds up being solid, though. In 243 plate appearances, he’s slashing .243/.295/.451 (.745 OPS) and all 11 of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching. He is good in centerfield, too, so at least in that case the Giants would be able to upgrade their outfield defense a bit. Especially if they added Mullins only and kept Yaz.
This is not a great upgrade and it might even be iffy to call it “solid” or “quality,” but again, just to put his results in context, that split against RHP is worth 110 wRC+, which is 97th in MLB (min 150 PA), so, at worst, he’d be an “upgrade with a track record.” The only players currently on the Giants with better results are LaMonte Wade Jr. (133), Patrick Bailey (120), and Mike Yastrzemski (114). He’s a fraction of Santander and, possibly, a fraction of the cost.
Yandy Díaz – 1B/3B, Tampa Bay
The right-handed hitting reigning AL Batting Champion and 2023 All-Star who got MVP votes (thanks to a line of .330/.410/.522 in 600 PA) has come crashing back down to his aging curve (he’ll turn 33 on August 8th) with a line of .270/.326/.397 in 2024.
That’s actually closer to his career averages (.287/.373/.432) and after cratering to a .661 OPS on May 31st, he’s hitting .304/.337/.468 (.805 OPS) since. That includes 11 doubles, a triple, and 5 home runs. Statcast still sees him as a darling, and as much as his .397 slugging on the season basically makes him LaMonte Wade Jr., but I don’t think we can honestly assess LWJ as “We have Yandy Diaz at home” because Wade’s injury history is much like Brandon Belt’s: a big part of his profile. Diaz, theoretically, provides more stability/consistency (his recent stint on the restricted list notwithstanding). At the very least, he would be the definition of an upgrade over this year’s edition of Wilmer Flores and might be in the midst of a similarly hot streak compared to how Flores ended last season.
We know Tampa Bay would love to shed the $10 million he’s owed next season (there’s also club option for 2025) and maybe the cost wouldn’t be as severe as what Seattle surrendered to get Randy Arozarena (their #12 & #22 prospects).
Over at The Athletic (sub required), Grant got his post up before I could finish this one, so I looked it over and saw that he talked up Brandon Lowe. I almost went this direction — especially because he’s a left-handed hitter and plays second base (which would push Wisely into a utility role, which is probably best for him) — but I’m going with the aging curve as being something Tampa would like to ditch more than see what they could get for Lowe and maybe that’s a $10 million lottery ticket for 2025 that the Giants could more easily absorb than the Rays would want to gamble on keeping.
On the other hand, trades are hard under normal circumstances, but since the sellers control the market this year, Tampa Bay would want a lot. It’s doubtful the Giants have the prospect capital to match because, well, they never do.
When you look at what the Giants need and what other teams have and consider how the Giants prefer to evaluate players (2.5:1 strikeouts to walk, multi-positional, with either a high on base or above average power) the list gets very, very small, and winnowed down more as you look at the age of the player, contract status, and position of their current team in terms of the contention window; and, a lot of the names who might’ve been available because of the team they’re on were moved recently.
To wit: Isaac Paredes, Jesse Winker, Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm, and Luis Arraez are all guys who could’ve helped the Giants but have already been moved. Luis Rengifo and Kevin Pillar are two names floating out there that I just don’t see the team having much interest in; so, I think in order for an addition over Bucket A to happen something creative will need to happen (a three-team deal, a blockbuster trade with multiple prospects, etc.). Do you think the Giants have it in them or would you prefer they sell or hope they stand pat?