The deal is pending the removal of the infamous “Justin Verlander WOW” gif from all social media platforms.
lol — I mean, uh, the San Francisco Giants have signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to a 1-year deal, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan:
BREAKING: Right-hander Justin Verlander and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a one-year contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. The future Hall of Famer, who turns 42 next month, will spend his 20th season with the Giants.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 7, 2025
There’s shades of “Randy Johnson, 2009 Giant” and then there’s a direct homage, and that’s what this is. At the time of that signing, Grant Brisbee wrote on this site:
Fantastic, low-risk move. If Johnson’s back goes wonky, the Giants will go with whatever in-house fifth starter they were thinking about in the first place. Kevin Pucetas? Joe Martinez? Other, Other? There’s less pressure on that bunch, and they can prove their worthiness in Fresno before a trial of fire. And by “fire,” I mean “slow groundballs finding their way between third base and short.”
Bet you didn’t wake up this morning expecting to read the name Kevin Pucetas.
But nor did you expect to hear about Justin Verlander, Giant, either. I certainly didn’t. I had been drifting towards a Max Scherzer move, if the team planned to add any pitching at all. They had been signaling an interest in bats! Plus, I figured that the 2012 of it all would make it a little embarrassing for both parties to hookup.
I’m not sure 42-year old Justin Verlander, coming off the worst season of his career thanks to shoulder and neck issues, is a worthwhile investment. Besides, if Buster Posey contends the Giants are in the memory-making business, then Justin Verlander has already made a permanent memory in Oracle Park (I know the third home run is off of Al Alburquerque, but this is the only highlight that would embed):
And, look. This is his defining moment with Giants fans. It’s not going to be erased no matter what happens, and it’s entirely possible it’ll be added to thanks to the lineups he’ll be facing in the NL West; but also, just Coors Field in general.
But let’s return to his on-field performance of late. Verlander is not the absolute ace he once was, which is to be expected as he’s now in his early forties (he turns 42 on February 20th), and just as importantly, he hasn’t been healthy recently. After winning the Cy Young in 2022 (18-4, 1.75 ERA, 218 strikeouts in 175 IP), he’s 18-14 with a 4.03 EA in 252.2 IP with 218 strikeouts.
Now, both the Cy Young and decline come after getting Tommy John surgery in 2020 or 2021. He expected the procedure to prolong his career — which it sort of has — but it’s also a case study in just how many pitches and innings a human body can withstand. The 6’5” and 235-pound workhorse has done it all and been counted on to do it all for basically his entire career, but there’s nothing in the record that demonstrates the Giants are about to get lucky and see a single season return to form.
In 2024, he missed most of June, all of July, and most of August, and over his final 7 starts he pitched 33.1 innings and gave up 30 runs (all earned), bad enough for an 8.10 ERA. His fastball velocity (93.5 mph) was 1.5 mph off his 2022 Cy Young season (95) and compared to even just 2023 his spin rates were way down for his entire arsenal.
But, he’s a name, he’s definitely a bulldog who wants to win — or, at least, pad his stats (he’s 38 wins away from 300) — and he will be an easy sell to a fanbase that hasn’t paid close attention to his career since 2012 and what the NL West has gotten up to this offseason. Of course, the other big selling point will be the possibility of him serving as a mentor to the team’s stable of young arms trying to figure things out. This is a role Verlander embraced even when he was in his prime.
Still, it’s tough to be overly excited about this. Verlander didn’t give off “he’s still got it!” vibes last season and recent reporting on the Giants has similarly given off “trades are hard” / “hey, we tried!” energy; so, this move is one that might be expected of a team that swung and missed on most of its free agent acquisitions and many (if not all of its) trade explorations but still desired putting a happy face on the situation so that fans (and players) don’t pre-give up on a season. To that point:
Verlander’s deal is for $15 million, per a source. https://t.co/mASEOZaPht
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) January 8, 2025
That’s a significant number for a team that didn’t have a lot of wiggle room in the budget. Even adjusting for inflation, that’s more than what the Giants gave then-44 year old Randy Johnson, who had still managed to pitch at a slightly above league average level into his forties (12.0 bWAR ages 41-44). Verlander’s bWAR since 2018: 6.3, 7.4, 5.6, 3.5, 2.2, 1.3, -0.3.
So… you know, it’s right there. We don’t have to deny reality. The Giants aren’t getting an ace of the staff and Verlander is not going to take the team from fourth place to 3rd Wild Card contender. That won’t stop Posey from reminding people of how the 2009 season went in terms of expectations (they went from expected to lose to a surprising playoff chaser!) and this move feels very much designed to evoke that memory. It’s good effort, but Verlander might not elicit the same emotions that Johnson (and his 300th win) did.
This isn’t to condemn the man’s obviously great career, it’s just that it’s hard to see this as something that will work out for both parties or, at the very least, imagine that this is a situation that either wanted to find themselves in when the offseason began.