With Buster Posey installed as the very real President of Baseball Operations, it’s time for the fans to focus their imagination on what the team might look like in 2025.
I’ve gotten into a habit of copy-pasting this post format over the years, but the only thing I’m inclined to port over from last year’s post is the opening line: the San Francisco Giants sure do have some big decisions to make this offseason about the future of the franchise.
Earlier tonight, MLB Trade Rumors posted their arbitration award projections for the 2024 offseason — it’s a little earlier than the usual drop, but here we are. As Buster Posey said during his various media hits today, there’s no easing into the job of running the Giants. The team has some tough choices to make about a quartet of key players — or, at least, players who would’ve been key to the Giants of Farhan Zaidi. Who is gone.
But before we speculate on what the Giants will do with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Tyler Rogers and (checks notes) oh god — Camilo Doval? — let’s talk about the accuracy of MLB Trade Rumors’ projection system. It is, in a word: nails. You can read all about how they created their model here.
Let’s look at how their projections from last year fared (MLB service time in parenthesis):
- Austin Slater (5.147) — $3.6MM | ACTUAL: $4MM
- J.D. Davis (5.137) — $6.8MM | ACTUAL: $6.9
- Mike Yastrzemski (4.128) — $7.3MM | ACTUAL: $7.9MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (4.035) — $3.3MM | ACTUAL: $3.5MM
- Tyler Rogers (4.034) — $3.2MM | ACTUAL: $3.2MM
- Thairo Estrada (3.169) — $4.8MM | ACTUAL: $4.7MM
Now, there are a few super-duper caveats with this bunch: Slater & Yastrzemski signed 6 weeks after the projections went out and about 7 weeks ahead of the rest of the bunch. Their actual salaries reflect the team prioritizing locking them up, and we know why: Slater was still considered a pinch hitter/platoon bat extraordinaire while Yaz was a team leader (by example) and fan favorite. Slater would be traded and although Yaz had a solid season, he hasn’t really revealed himself to be better than a fourth outfielder.
And, of course, J.D. Davis actually beat the team in arbitration (they filed at $6.55 million). He won’t forget what the Giants did to him anytime soon. It was bad for him and his career earnings, but it did net the team Matt Chapman, who would go on to sign a lucrative long-term deal thanks in large part to the new President of Baseball Operations.
So, it now falls to Buster Posey to decide what happens to four former teammates who’ve all had generally good Giants careers since he retired. Is our fearless leader Brady right? Should the Giants tender them all contracts? Well, he’s not writing this post so I guess it’s up to me to figure that out.
Normally, I try to stick to what I think the Giants might do based on their track record of decision-making and reading between the lines or simply citing statements made by Farhan Zaidi. We don’t really have much to go on just 12 hours after Buster Posey’s press conference, so I’m going to have to (gasp) think this through all by myself in terms of which players I think the Giants will tender a contract to by the tender deadline; but, to keep it Posey themed, I’ll render a judgment of either Havin’ It or Ain’t Havin’ It (and yes, I remember that Andrew Baggarly showed Posey the gif and he claimed that wasn’t what he was saying — it was that he didn’t have a firm grip on the ball he threw).
Tyler Rogers (projection: $5.5 million)
From a pure stats standpoint, Rogers had a better season here in 2024 than he did in 2023 based on common measures like ERA (2.82) and FIP (3.56). He walked just 6 batters in 70.1 innings, too; but, because offense was down league wide, he wound up with 0.6 fWAR for the third straight season. He led the Giants in appearances, though, with 77 games, the most of any other National League pitcher (4th overal in MLB). So, WAR is not the be-all-end-all in determining his value. Getting outs and not walking guys is extremely valuable, and the funky delivery works. Just giving hitters a different arm slot can make the difference for a bullpen, so long as he’s spotting his pitches. He turns 34 in December and it’s his final year of arbitration. I think it’s an easy call: Havin’ It.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (projection: $4.7 million)
I’m a little surprised to see that he’s played in 252 games the past two seasons because it feels like less than that. Anyway, he was 20% better than the league average last season and 19% better this season, and that’s despite slugging just .381. His amazing .380 on base percentage (15.5% walk rate vs. 22.4% strikeout rate) is awfully tempting to old onto, especially for that reasonable cost. Remember: a win above replacement on the free agent market can cost anywhere from $6-$9 million. Wade Jr. slipped from a 2-win player to a 1-win player this season and so that plus age (he’ll be playing his age-31 season) plus his injury history work against him.
On the other hand, Wilmer Flores has a $3.5 million player option and he’s going to pick it up. The Giants are probably going to want to see if his broken body can provide them with any value rather than simply cut him sight unseen. Could Buster Posey stomach an exploration of a Wade-Flores first base platoon to start the season? That’s around $8 million for a platoon that might net the team 2 wins above replacement (which is generally considered to be league average), which would allow the front office to allocate money elsewhere. But maybe the Giants just want guys who can stay healthy OR not stand in the way of Bryce Eldridge? This is a tough one, but at the same time, not really. The Giants can always trade him. Havin’ It.
Mike Yastrzemski (projection: $9.5 million)
On the one hand, $9.5 million is not a lot of money for a baseball outfielder. On the other hand, it is a lot of money for a baseball outfielder who’s closer to a reserve role rather than a starting one, based on his recent performance. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s accumulated 4.7 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), which is 47th in MLB among qualified outfielders. Farhan Zaidi had a soft spot for him and I suspect the organization might, too. He blossomed under Bochy, Giants fandom — which has successfully lobbied ownership about the team’s direction the past couple of years — has taken to him, so I think it makes sense to hold onto him for his final year of arbitration.
He’s the Giants’ home run leader (106) since his debut in 2019. Does that count for something? I’m less sure of that and more sure of the team wanting to retain recognizable players fans seem to like. Havin’ It.
Camilo Doval (projection: $4.6 million)
I do not want the Giants to tender him a contract, but the simple act of typing out that sentence and then hearing myself say it out loud has made me realize that non-tendering him would be absolutely silly and something the team would not do.
Teams don’t usually non-tender a guy who throws 100 mph+ when all is going well nor walk away from a young player who was an All-Star just last year. If they wind up moving on by simple non-tendering, then we can be sure that (1) they didn’t get much in the way of trade offers and (2) there’s something significant going on behind the scenes that compelled them to leave the relationship regardless of the impact on the roster. Will this come down to Posey looking Doval in the eye and seeing if he’s got “it”? Hard to say. On the other hand, “reclaiming Camilo” could be a rallying cry for the new front office. Havin’ It.
That’s $24.3 million on four players who might generate somewhere in the range of 3-6 WAR. That’s not a lot of money to spend on depth for the 40-man or at the very least retain some trade pieces if the season unravels again. Relievers are the most fungible players on a roster, and yet solid-to-good ones are hard to come by. Rogers has been consistently solid to good and Doval offers tantalizing upside.
All four of these guys lowers the odds of the team needing to bring in Trenton Brooks or Luke Jackson types — and before you shout about how those are just “Farhan Specials” or some nonsense… remember Chase d’Arnaud? Or Bryan Morris? Still, Wade and Yastrzemski are two guys who have been stalwarts on Giants teams the likes of which Buster Posey (and especially the fans) seems to want to move away from in 2025.