The old farts
Do you hear it? That faint popping in the distance — orb to leathery pocket. The distinct reintroduction of baseball to mitt. The cadence of a game of catch.
Pitchers and catchers report to camp today. “Camp” being a tad inaccurate when referring to the multi-million dollar sports complex stuffed with resort-like amenities: the most expensive gadgets in sports technologies, fullly-equipped health and wellness facilities, and a cereal bar with all the name-brand cereals to choose from.
It is there, in that desert oasis, that the San Francisco Giants starting rotation will need to get some serious work done. Less of a dusting off over the next month-and-a-half, and more of a targeted exorcism. A focused examination of all the squeaky bits that make up the pitcher’s whole. The good news is there’s talent: both raw and established.
First: the established. Beyond established in some eyes. The old jalopies, rusted and dusted and threaded with weeds in the empty lot next door. Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray — can we get these babies revving their engines again? Both have been kicking around the MLB for a long time now, and are either new or new-ish to the San Francisco threads. Status and style is why I grouped them together. Power arms that approach pitching like wild west lawmen. Shoot first and ask questions later, because who’s going to say they can’t? For both a good portion of last season was spent not pitching, but recovering. Injuries loom in both of their recent pasts, opening a chasm between the present and their not-so long ago successes as American League Cy Young winners. Is replicating some semblance of that success possible in 2025? Let’s pop open the hood and see what’s up.
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Justin Verlander, RHP
Problematic pitch: Four-seam fastball
In 2017, Verlander’s four-seam fastball accrued a 32 Run Value (1.6 RV/100). In 2018, it earned a 35 RV (1.7). In 2019, his second Cy Young year, a 16 RV (1.0). In 2022, his third Cy Young year, the fastball posted a 24 RV (1.8).
The four-seamer’s run value in 2024? -10, with a -1.3 RV/100
A problematic decline in performance. I hope he works on that.
Grant Brisbee did a bit more thorough diagnostics after Verlander signed with the Giants in January (sub. required), and his conclusion is a simple one. Verlander dealt with a neck injury that put him on the IL in June, and the on-field results pre- and post-injury are pretty stark. His overall ERA more than doubled, his strikeout rate dropped, opponents’ slugging swelled, and most of those successes are replicated specifically against the fastball as well.
Usually velocity is a common culprit with heater issues. The speed has dropped in subsequent years, and there was some variance from game-to-game in MPH as always, but overall the average stayed pretty much the same throughout all of last season. Something dulled its effectiveness though. His average spin rate dropped in the later months, ostensibly lowering the average vertical break (or “rise”) on the pitch given his more over-the-shoulder release point. Is the difference between 2,400 RPM to 2,370 RPM that considerable? On the 2024 four-seam spin average leaderboard, it’s what separates the 53rd slot on the list to 69th. What is the difference between Andrew Heaney and Joey Estes? Is that gap considerable?
Let’s look at it this way. Verlander’s 2019 four-seam avg. spin sat at 2,537 RPM with a -10.7 avg. vertical break. In 2022 it had dropped to 2,423 RPM with a vertical break of -11.4. In 2024, it sat at 2,395 RPM and a -12.3 vertical break — note that those numbers reflect a pre-injury performance on par with his 2023 averages. So Verlander’s spin dropped by about 50 revolutions per minute from his Cy Young average two seasons ago to late summer of this past season.
Even with the decline, the fastball spins better than the average. It’s still got life, just less so. Verlander certainly qualifies, given his extensive experience in the field, as an expert in four-seam fastballs and was attune to these seemingly minor changes. Last year’s struggles might reflect the frustrations of having to adjust on the fly to this different pitch, this “new” four-seamer that he did not have complete control over.
Opposing hitters took notice.
Other notable trends: The percentage of four-seamers thrown in the strike zone dropped after Verlander’s return from injury, as did the Edge-%. With fewer borderline pitches clipping the corners, forcing bats to protect, hitters gained more agency. They chased less, and when they did go out of the zone, their swings didn’t miss as much. In April, chasing Verlander’s fastball produced a whiff nearly 50% of the time. In September, that rate was halved. The pitch’s K-rate also plummeted from 32% to 8.5% by season’s end.
Since the four-seam wasn’t fully functional, other pitch types had to carry a disproportionate load. Hitters feasted on the imbalance. Verlander’s slider, the Sundance to the four-seamer’s Butch Cassidy, stayed consistent and sharp, though its declining whiff-rate could be explained by wobbly-ness of the foundational fastball. The curve appeared more lethargic as it fell through the zone. The 19% Hard-Hit rate opponents posted against the big breaking ball early in the season shot up to 46% accompanied by a .438 batting average.
The process of “untangling” (Brisbee’s word) individual threads from a pitcher’s braided arsenal is difficult. Pitching is sequencing, and everything flows from the fastball for Verlander.
Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images
Robbie Ray, LHP
Problematic pitch: Knuckle curve…
In terms of Run Value or RV/100, Ray’s knuckle curve was his worst pitch in 2024 (-2 RV, -2.7 RV/100).
Annnnnndddddd the whole “problematic” language runs a-foul, because the knuckle curve has never been “good.” It isn’t really supposed to be. For Ray, the pitch is, literally and figuratively, what it is: something out-of-the-ordinary; a pitch to keep the hitter on their toes and prevent them from ambushing his four-seamer.
As far as breaking balls go, the curve is pretty nondescript. The movement is horizontally and vertically flat compared to other curves. Its average velocity is slower than his typical slider but harder than the league average. And Ray sells that non-action with his wind-up. How he turns his back to the hitter, the big load of the legs, the twist and whip, add a little grunt, and the hitter braces for the hard stuff, because 85% of the time that’s what they’re going to get…
This might explain the nearly 50% swing-and-miss rate the curve has achieved since Ray started throwing it in 2017. It produces a lot of front foot swings, over hacks. It’s at its best when Ray tamps the knuckle curve down, something that teases the heart of the plate before dropping away from it. A whiff is obviously the ideal, but the pitch can still achieve an intended result if it isn’t offered at all. Even if it misses the plate, Ray’s goal with the curve is to muddy up the waters in a right-hander’s mind. Oh yeah, I forgot about that curveball…
The danger of the knuckle curve is if it comes in high, it becomes batting practice, which is exactly what happened facing Michael Harris II.
That single [problematic] pitch put a damper on the curve’s entire run value last season. A fact that might signal the flaw in using Run Value to pinpoint “problem” pitches. pitching is sequencing. It’s also about context — and that’s what the run value stat is good at capturing.
Savant’s metric is a pitch-by-pitch measurement calculating the run-expectancy of various scenarios (i.e., count, number of outs, number of runners on base). Each pitch thrown either helps or hurts the pitcher’s chances of preventing runs. Giving up a homer with a certain pitch is a bad way to prevent runs. Doing it with the bases loaded is even worse. So even though the knuckle curve fetched a 49% whiff-rate, 42% K-rate, and a 36% Hard-Hit rate, the little things (correction: a couple of really big things) add up fast to create negative Run Value.
Another thing to note that might be undermining my whole premise that this pitch is truly “problematic”: I’m not sure Ray does not need, or rely, on the knuckle curve to be successful. In 2021, when he won the Cy Young Award with the Blue Jays, Ray threw the curve 6% of the time, while throwing his four-seamer and slider about 90% of the time. Last year, it took up about 15% of his mix (85 pitches), which is the highest percentage since the 2020 season.
As the third pitch, a subpar knuckle curve isn’t setting off any alarm bells. Something like a dip in velocity for Ray’s four-seamer would be a greater concern. The good news is last year’s post-surgery 94.1 MPH average wasn’t a substantial drop from its 94.8 MPH average in 2021. Good news too is that he just turned 33 and is nearly a decade younger than Verlander, meaning a physical bounce back is much more plausible.
Consistency with location rather than speed was the four-seamer’s biggest issue. The fastball’s 11.6% BB-rate neared double what it was three seasons ago. Other than that, Ray’s foundational pitch was excellent. Opponent’s hit just .167 (.177 xBA) against it while slugging .367 (.350 xSLG) — better numbers than in the year he bagged league hardware. Hitters fared even worse against the slider (.148 BA / .222 SLG) while batting the pitch into the ground at a 64% rate — a dozen points higher than in 2021.
It’d be tough to deem either of those pitches as “problematic” based on those numbers. What is problematic though is losing on a pitch akin to a palate cleanser, one designed to set-up the next.
Is it cruel to pick on one pitch? Of course it is. Beating a dead horse, more like. Ray knows that pitch was a mistake — he knew it the moment it left his hand — but it still looms large in his abbreviated season.
Scanning his pitching logs, walks (15 BB plus 6 HBP in 30.2 IP) coupled with homers (6) were the obvious sticky bits. Some of the lack of command can be chalked up as the adrenaline / re-acclimation Ray experienced pitching for the first time in over a year and for a new team (veterans get nervous too!). We saw this in his first start against LA. Two wild pitches, two hit batters, a walk — nothing worked in that first inning, and the fault rested proportionally across his pitch mix. Same deal in his start against Atlanta. Ray already hit two batters, walked two which directly led to a run (and all with two strikes!), before he floated in that unfortunate 0-1 curve to Harris. At that point in the inning, it probably felt like his only option. Problematic indeed.