Not surprising, but is this a potentially fruitful plan of action or a flop in waiting?
Taylor Wirth from NBC Sports Bay Area — reporting on a Jeff Passan offseason report posted to ESPN — says the San Francisco Giants are making both Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. available for trade this offseason.
Last month, I looked at both of their arbitration cases after MLB Trade Rumors published their arbitration figure estimates and deemed both worthy of their potential deals. That was before I knew the team would be slashing payroll, of course, but given the landscape of free agency, where the team must constantly overpay to get anyone of value, I figured that they were better off keeping both and concentrating resources elsewhere.
Well, it appears the Giants need to cannibalize a bit of their ship to fuel that quest, and at the end of this post I’ll ask you for your prediction on what you think might happen. I’m going to ignore the feelings aspect of it. Farhan Zaidi had a soft spot for Mike Yastrzemski, and LaMonte Wade Jr. is a solid player when healthy. But I want to give you more food for thought when it comes to selecting that poll option at the end.
I don’t think most of us have adjusted to the realities of the Baseball industry when it comes to trades. It’s not just that “trades are hard” it’s that the zero sum mindset has infected virtually every team in the sport. It’s programmer’s brain. 1s and 0s. Somebody’s line must go down for your line to go up. Arbitrage, arbitrage, arbitrage. So, then, “winning the trade” becomes the paramount focus for most of these executives.
On top of that, player value has never been more precarious. There definitely is a donut hole in the new conventional wisdom where certain players of a certain age have open to them a very high ceiling in terms of how much they will be offered and how much they can make, but they’re in the minority, as has usually been the case — but that minority has shrunk. Instead, guys like Wade and Yaz are much closer to being the type of guy who is easily replaced, either on cheap veteran free agent deals or in the aggregate through platoons and minor leaguers.
And that brings us back to the almighty Wins Above Replacement.
You might not personally “believe” in it, but it’s a marker for how much US dollar will stick to a player. Yastrzemski’s last three seasons (by fWAR): 1.5, 1.6, 1.6. Wade Jr.: 0.1, 1.8. 1.3. These are, rather comfortably, players virtually every other team would be very, very happy to have on their roster but for far less than what they’re due to receive in arbitration. In other words, if the Giants non-tender them, they will both catch on with another team, but for maybe $2 million in Wade’s case and around $4-$6 million for Yastrzemski.
This is the reason why Buster Posey might not be able to execute his best laid plans. There might not be a trade market for either of these players. And that raises the question, “Will Buster Posey non-tender either or both player in order to create payroll space?”
Based on the MLB Trade Rumors projection, they’re a potential $14.2 million salary reduction. Add that to the story that the team is already looking to move Camilo Doval ($4.6 million arbitration estimate) and the Giants are looking to trim around $18-$19 million. How much of that factors into Andrew Baggarly’s reporting that the team is looking to spend $30-$40 million — as in, is a chunk of that figure coming from these potential trades/non-tenders? — and it makes it even harder to imagine the team keeping any of them.
Trading Doval makes it easier to non-tender Wade while keeping Yaz on a slightly below arb figure deal (as Yastrzemski has signaled he’d be open to), but trading Doval and non-tendering both position players puts the team in the best financial position to get Ha-Seong Kim and at least stay competitive for some other free agents. Does Buster have it in him to be that ruthless? We’ll find out soon enough. The deadline to tender contractions (which does not mean coming to an agreement) to arbitration eligible players is November 22nd.
But I wrote up this post for your predictions. I’ll leave you with mine: Wade Jr. non-tendered, Yastrzemski retained. We can sort out what that means and what that does the roster later.