Mostly effective and often impressive, the Giants have A Guy on their hands.
2024 stats: 35 G, 52.1 IP, 3-2 W-L, 4.30 ERA (3.34 FIP), 9.11 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, 0.5 fWAR
The year began with the McCovey Chronicles community voting him as the team’s 33rd-best prospect. He made his major league debut against the Phillies in Philadelphia in May. His first major league strikeout was Bryce Harper. His parents were able to travel from the Dominican Republic to watch him pitch in Atlanta in July.
It’s difficult to fly under the radar when your fastball averages ~98 mph and your slider spins with the best of them, but Randy Rodríguez did do that for most of the 2024 season — at least where the rest of the sport is concerned. San Francisco Giants fans who watched most or all of the games witnessed the emergence of a versatile arm that fits the current trends.
But if you go through the mainstream sources, few were noticing Randy Rodríguez beyond the occasional deep fantasy team angle (“Need a reliever? Consider this guy!”). Some of that had to do with a May debut plus a bad June (6.19 ERA / 4.85 FIP in 16 IP), some of it had to do with the lack of standout moments — he didn’t perform in most of his highest-leverage moments; .821 OPS against with 2 outs, RISP and .886 OPS against when pitching in a tie game — but also, missing 6 weeks with a flexor strain, plus, most importantly: the Giants didn’t really have a lot of standout moments this season.
Despite the negatives, I think the Giants have something in Rodríguez. Not quite a starter, but something like a swingman role. Not quite like what Jakob Junis did last season or what the plan seemed to be for Tristan Beck this season (before that scary blood clot), but just short of that. The team used him for multiple innings in 17 of his 35 appearances, and he even made an opener start (June 25th against the Cubs: 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K).
The upside of that is providing strikeout stuff in the middle of the game if a starter falters or if a bullpen game is a necessity. With rare exceptions, teams that strikeout a lot tend not to score as much. Of course, the ultimate upside is that the Giants might also have a late inning leverage reliever if Rodríguez can hold on to his velocity while gaining experience.
His pitch arsenal is interesting in that the pitch he threw the most (his four-seamer) was — by far — his worst pitch, according to Statcast (-5 Run Value). Major league hitters had a .449 slugging percentage against it and .352 weighted on base average (the league average wOBA in 2024 against all pitches: .310). Hitters had a 25% Whiff rate against it, too, which is nice, but because of its relative lack of movement — compared to a sinker, anyway — it was easier to square up when a hitter timed it right. And Rodríguez did throw a sinker 64 times! It was also crushed (.417 batting average against, .417 slug — 93 mph average exit velocity).
So, obviously, we’re dealing with a talented reliever who has command/control issues. That’s… the story of every reliever ever. His issue really is controlling his high octane fastball. Easier said than done, of course, but just to underscore its importance, I’ll note the following:
- His 48.6% strike zone percentage was right in line with league average, but the rate combined all 4 of his pitches (four-seam, two-seam, slider, changeup).
- This was his sinker heat map:
- This was his four seam heat map:
- For comparison, here are his slider and changeup maps:
To be clear, this season represents a small sample size for Rodríguez, so any conclusions reached here are based on some volatile figures, but just eyeballing these maps, it’s clear he can’t put his fastballs where they ought to go. They’re greasy meatballs that demand to be devoured. There’s nothing surprising about this because, again, he’s a major league reliever, and better yet, if he can figure something out here in terms of his delivery or grip to command his fastball better, then we have all the makings of a great late inning option.
Rodriguez’s stuff is undeniable. The exciting red on his Statcast page affirms his strengths relative to his peers, so this isn’t a case of “because he’s on the Giants” that we should be on the intrigued-to-excited spectrum with him going into 2025. Bob Melvin offered,
“[He’s gone] from basically a fastball guy to a guy that now is throwing off-count sliders. He’s throwing some changeups, too, which makes him a little bit more unpredictable. But it’s the fact that he can throw it in all counts, where earlier in the season, especially in the spring, he wasn’t able to do that. When you throw 100 mph, 98 mph, and you’re cracking off a slider in sometimes off-counts, that’s when you’re going to see bad swings.”
This year wasn’t his breakout, but it was a rehearsal, and he demonstrated enough talent to suggest that he’s not just an understudy. He might be a star very soon.