Massive Monday mega mailbag

My, my.

A week ago, I put out a call for a San Francisco Giants mailbag. Before I got around to answering the questions, the city I live in (Los Angeles) caught fire in a terrifying and tragic scene.

I and all my people and belongings are, thankfully, completely fine, but it took me a while to actually get to these questions. And in that time the Giants signed Justin Verlander and were told “enjoy the city, love” by Rōki Sasaki.

It has perhaps changed the tenor of some of these questions and answers, but I think we’ll do just fine.

Because I and the McCovey Chronicles account have almost entirely stopped using Twitter, I wasn’t sure how best to get questions, so I took to Bluesky (follow us there!) and the comment section of a recent article. In my fear of not getting enough questions, I got too many. So let’s get through them as quickly as possible, starting with the embeddable comments from That New App.

In the literal sense, yes, I think Casey Schmitt could handle first base. I see no reason to think why someone who is a notably above-average defender at the hot corner couldn’t hold it down at the mild corner.

But in the practical sense, I don’t think there’s any world in which Schmitt is part of the primary (or even secondary) plans at first base. In my eyes, Schmitt enters Spring Training as the heavy favorite to win the backup infielder role, which means that if he gets turned into a first baseman, then Brett Wisely is the backup infielder. So it’s not really Schmitt vs. Wilmer Flores, it’s Wisely vs. Flores and, even with Wilmer’s health concerns, that’s an easy pick for me for a team if we’re just talking first base. And if neither, then at least give Jerar Encarnación a chance.

As for Marco Luciano at DH? Feels very unlikely. At some point the Giants need to find a position for him, and it’s better to do that in AAA than in the Majors while DHing. In a post Jorge Soler-world, I don’t see Bob Melvin and Buster Posey turning to a full-time DH rather than cycling usable defensive players through that role. If Luciano can prove a playable fourth outfielder or backup infielder — and if he can prove that his bat is worth putting in the lineup — then I could see him getting a healthy dose of reps at DH. But those are some big and critical “ifs.”

I know this was said in jest, but it got me wondering which players from the World Series teams could actually still help the Giants more than a decade later. I settled on the following tiers:

Could definitely help the Giants right now:
Buster Posey

Could probably help the Giants right now:
Brandon Belt
Hunter Strickland

Could quite possibly make the Opening Day roster if they were in Spring Training:
Brandon Crawford
Matt Duffy
Adam Duvall

I’m not willing to say they couldn’t help the Giants right now:
Madison Bumgarner

Would be better on the Giants right now than they were when they were actually on the Giants:
Dan Uggla

The first goal is to make the playoffs. That should always be the first goal. Is it an uphill battle? Yes. But I’ll never forget Buster Posey showing up to Spring Training in 2021 and saying that the team’s goal was to win the NL West.

The Giants are not favored to make the postseason, nor should they be. But it is well within the realm of their plausible outcomes and, as such, it needs to be the biggest goal.

The second goal is to build a sustainable base going forward through the development of their young players (and possibly the acquisition of some). The kind of base that, when paired with Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, and Logan Webb A) makes you think the Giants are a lock for a better-than-.500 finish year in, year out, and B) makes free agents think the Giants are an intriguing team to sign with.

And the third goal is to do better in, as Buster Posey called it, the “memory making business” side of things. They’re easily trending in that direction with the way fans fell in love with Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee last year, with Chapman and Adames locked up long term, and with Bryce Eldridge right around the corner.

I think those are both the goals and the signs of success this year.

First off, if anyone isn’t subscribed to Roger’s exceptional Substack, There R Giants, then go do so immediately! If you have any interest in the Minors — or would like to learn about the Minors — then Roger’s work is necessary. He’s just finishing up his excellent depth charts, and about to start his top 50. Both projects are essential reading for anyone invested in the Giants farm system.

My answer then, Roger, is a little tangential. Your question reminded me of something I’ve been thinking about since the Giants lost out on the Corbin Burnes sweepstakes — that you can think a contract is both good and bad. What does it mean to think a contract is “good” or “bad?” It really means, at its heart, that you think it’s a contract you would (or wouldn’t) sign, if you were the person running the whole show.

I think the Burnes contract was good in the sense that, if I were Charles Johnson, the billionaire owner of the Giants, I’d be stoked to be getting that player for that cost. I think the Burnes contract was bad in the sense that, if I were Buster Posey, I would think I could do better with the limited funds still available in the budget self-imposed by Johnson and Co. Or I guess, put more succinctly, the point I’m trying to make is that any contract for a good player can be a good contract — or a bad contract — with the right budget.

Which is a long-winded way of saying that the Giants escaping mediocrity has to come within the framework of ownership’s limits, which makes fantasy roster-building a little difficult, since we’re not entirely sure what those limits are. And needless to say, those limits change the philosophical approach.

I do think, to actually attempt to answer the question, that the “trick” if you can call it that, is to find any means necessary to be sustainably above-.500 so that they appear appealing to the larger name free agents. Would Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani or Bryce Harper or Yoshinobu Yamamoto have signed with them if they were coming off an 85-win season? Maybe not, but maybe! It’s become clear that, with equal contracts on the table, free agents aren’t picking the Giants over the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, or Phillies. A lot goes into the free agency process, but the only factors the Giants can control are dollars are wins. If they’re not going to offer more of the former, they need to find a way to offer more of the latter, and become a team that players are excited to join. The Giants have money, a beautiful ballpark, a great city, a tremendous fanbase, and a rich history. I firmly believe that if they can build a team that sustainably wins 85 games, then the (relatively) easy part will be bumping that total up to 90 or 95.

I’ll add this, though, as one of the chairmen of Team Not My Money: you never regret giving big contracts to good players. The regret only ever comes from giving money to not-good players (or not giving money to good players).

Brian Wilson is like Bigfoot: if you see him, then it wasn’t actually him. If you know what Brian Wilson is up to, then it’s not Brian Wilson who you know about. That’s the Brian Wilson Paradox.

Perhaps not at the level that they’re hoping for long-term, but I am very optimistic about the roster capturing the hearts and attention of fans. Jung Hoo Lee was adored by fans before going down with a season-ending injury. Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald started to become fan favorites as exciting homegrown youngsters, and any other players who follow that mold will do the same. Fans now know that Matt Chapman and Willy Adames — a pair of players who are so easy to root for — are going to post 150 times a year for the next half-decade. And now you can watch a first ballot Hall of Famer pitch every fifth day!

It’s impossible to answer these sorts of questions. Not only is it entirely dependent on how players perform, but it’s equally unclear how the new regime will view development. Buster Posey and Randy Winn have both alluded to wanting players to stay at a level for a full year, which is certainly a massive shift from what we saw in the final years of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure. But will that actually be the case?

So you just never know. Either player could fly through the system, and either player could fall on their face and need a long time … or never make it to the show. Remember: the Giants first-round picks in 2019 (Hunter Bishop) and 2021 (Will Bednar) have yet to come close to making the Majors, and while some of that is due to injury, much of it is due to development stalling. And that stalled engine can re-start at any time: it took until 2024 for the team’s first-round picks in 2017 (Heliot Ramos) and 2018 (Joey Bart) to look like quality Major Leaguers.

But if I had to guess when we’ll get a debut from James Tibbs III (their first-round pick in 2024) and Josuar de Jesus González (their top international signing expected to sign on Wednesday), I’d say mid-2027 for Tibbs (with a chance at late-2026), and late-2028 for González. And if that feels pessimistic for González, remember that Marco Luciano and Luis Matos signed in 2018!

Well, I’d start by challenging that assertion slightly. I think fans see the minutiae — which is to say, all the players we’ve latched onto and dreamed about — and forget that other teams have those players too.

Every organization has far more losses than wins in development. Hell, just in the last few weeks, the Dodgers — viewed by so many as the gold standard of prospect development — traded Gavin Lux for peanuts and waived Diego Cartaya, a pair of top-top prospects once thought to be the organization’s future.

Development is so important and I’m not trying to defend the Giants here. There are more data points against them than in favor of them ever since the historic wave of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain came through. But I will say that I think we view developmental successes and failures based primarily on the presence or absence of superstar talents, and I think that’s more a drafting problem than a developing problem. And hopefully one Bryce Eldridge can help fix.

I’m not sure they’re bad at recruiting players from Korea. There haven’t been very many players from Korea who have come over lately, and the Giants signed the biggest one (though, as you note, Jung Hoo Lee is a Scott Boras client).

I have no idea about the struggles with Japanese players, but it seems very concerning.

Marco Luciano decided not to play winter ball so that he could instead work with his swing coach. I have no idea how evaluators, prospectors, and the Giants feel about that, but I love it. I feel like the Giants tinkered with Luciano way too much last year, and I hope he can get back to what he was doing before they messed with him.

As for Luis Matos and his success in the Venezuelan Winter League, I have two thoughts. The first is that winter ball is like preseason: Does the performance mean a lot? No. But is it still better to have success than failure? Hell yes.

The second is that Mike Krukow said on a recent KNBR hit that he changed as a player after a good winter ball showing because it proved he could play, and he took that confidence with him to Spring Training. Hopefully the same can be true for Matos.

Tom Murphy still exists and is still under contract. If he has recovered from the knee injury that essentially took out his entire 2024, then he’s the backup catcher. And likely a very good one.

This is something we don’t really know now, might not know for a long time and, honestly, might never know. I wouldn’t expect those scouts to be replaced, though. The industry as a whole is relying on fewer scouts, and while the team’s former scouts were released while Farhan Zaidi was in charge, it was close enough to Zaidi’s firing date that ownership could have, presumably, blocked the move if they weren’t on board with it.

Well, props to MightyMouse55 for calling it, as Verlander was signed shortly after this comment! They also claimed catcher Sam Huff off of waivers, bringing their offseason 40-man roster additions to a whopping three!

I wouldn’t worry too much about the lost draft picks. They hurt, no doubt, but the overwhelming majority of value in the Majors comes from first-round picks (and high-profile international free agents). You can’t worry about not adding mid-level prospects at the expense of signing proven stars.

As for the amount of years needed? I’d prefer to think of the farm system as a living, breathing creature … almost like sourdough starter, or the mother in a natural vinegar. You always want to be feeding it, and you always want it to be feeding you. Because it’s not just a matter of building things up … the Giants farm system will likely take a big hit next year in rankings because Bryce Eldridge will possibly graduate, and that’s not a bad thing!

Tina‬ ‪@shortcaketina.bsky.social‬

Buster has said they’re feeling good about the young guys in the rotation, but are there any plans to maybe make any trades to boost it a bit?

This question was sent in before the Justin Verlander deal so … yep! Not a trade, but there were plans.

With that said, I think we can close the door on the Giants pursuing any more starting pitchers, in trades or free agency. I think the rotation is Verlander, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison, with the young players adequately battling to fill in whenever needed.

Joewasgreatest:

Is it a permanent situation where the Giants open up with a road trip followed by a 2 series homestand then back on the road to play NYYankees and Phillies while the Dodgers open with a nice long homestand? All designed of course to put the Giants 10 games back by May 1. Or is it just 9 out of 10 years?

It’s the team’s decision … or rather, preference. They let the league know every year that they would prefer to begin the year on the road. I believe the reason is that they’d like to end the year at home, and ideally have a larger percentage of their home games be after the school year is over.

Similarly, never forget that even the best owners are still billionaires focused first and foremost on profit. The Golden State Warriors have one or two of the most brutal road trips in the NBA each season, because Joe Lacob requests them so that the Chase Center can be used as a venue during prime concert season.

DJ Tofu:

Can players request any walk-up songs? (say Kpop) Can the singers refuse their songs to be used by any specific player?

What exactly did the other teams change that made Fitzgerald cool down after his hot streak? (I guess it could have been nothing and he just reverted back to his normal level)

I believe walk-up songs go through the same copyright logistics as any other time music is used in a public space. The artist and label are paid whenever the song is used, and it probably goes through ASCAP or something similar, such that the artist never knows but, upon finding out, could then in theory refuse future use (as has become a quad-annual tradition at Republican presidential rallies).

As for Tyler Fitzgerald, I think it was a few things. I don’t think he reverted back to his normal level — I think his reality is somewhere in between the red-hot start and the icy-cold finish — but there was some natural regression. Much of it was, to my amateur eye, pitchers punching back. It’s generally how it goes for young hitters: they punch the pitcher in the mouth (metaphorically speaking), the pitcher punches them back (metaphorically speaking, unless you’re Hunter Strickland), and then they start over.

Pitchers made adjustments which, at some level, means they started respecting him more. Once he proved to be fairly decent at not chasing, pitchers started attacking parts of the zone where he struggled … or going outside of the one with different pitches. He saw more off-speed stuff. And the exhaustion of the busy Major League schedule — and playing a little out of position — probably caught up to him, too.

JoeMan212:

Which former teammate will Posey hire in an official capacity first?

Well, he started things off by hiring Randy Winn! But if I had to guess another one, I’d say a promotion for Ryan Vogelsong at some point. And if you had to put a line on the next manager whenever Bob Melvin’s days are over, you can do worse than giving decent odds to Nick Hundley.

Thompson for 3:

Thoughts on a possible Verlander or Scherzer signing?

How many years/money would you feel comfortable giving Flaherty?

What the probability of a BIG signing…Santander, Alonso, etc.?

My main thought on a possible Verlander signing is that they should do it, and that you’re smart.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any contract that Jack Flaherty would likely get, but that’s in a post-Verlander world. Pre-Verlander, I would have been fine with 3/$60M or 4/$75M, but would prefer just a pillow contract, honestly.

I would put the odds of a big position player signing at extremely low. It just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. None of the players are good fits, and all will cost a lot of money.

SonofaPitch2:

Yah…2 questions:

1)assuming a multi-year approach to fixing the Giants problems, is it even possible for scouting/drafting/development to be significantly improved given the current percentage of draft picks they keep sacrificing?

2) What are some of the foundational moves you anticipate in the giants big picture strategy, generously assuming there is one, to improve the farm and player development to generate some top tier players?

For your first question: yes, absolutely. The chance of finding a high-quality MLB player plummets after the first round. And even later on, you can often find a player who fell thanks to MLB’s odd draft slot bonus system. Remember: last year they sacrificied their second and third-round picks and then used a fourth-round pick on Dakota Jordan, signing him for a slot bonus in line with a high-second-round pick … which is where he was pegged on many big boards.

Don’t get me wrong, every lost pick hurts, and is part of the equation when signing a player who rejected the Qualifying Offer. But if the health of your system is reliant on having all your second and fifth-round picks every single year, you have bigger problems.

As for your second question, I anticipate three foundational big picture moves to improve the farm:

1. Exercise more patience with prospects, leaving most at each level for a full year, unless they really prove worthy of a promotion.
2. Less funneling of players into an organizational philosophy (think Marco Luciano hunting walks). That means letting hitters and pitchers rely more on the things that made them good prospects, and trying out fewer players in positionless roles.
3. Develop some semblance of an organizational identity, so it’s more clear what type of players they prioritize, and can work best with.

Those moves might be me hoping more than projecting, but we’ll see.

jalixi:

Here are some questions that have been rattling around in my head. Feel free to edit for clarity/brevity:

Last year the Giants had two guys who came out of “nowhere” who put up 3 fWAR (Fitzgerald) and 2.3 fWAR (Ramos). (I recall you and I were the two of the remaining few on Ramos island last off-season). Who will come out of nowhere to put up 2-3 WAR in 2025?

In the aftermath of the recent Baggarly article, much of the discussion was focused on the non-signing of Burnes. I’m fascinated by the nugget that the Giants were active in the bidding war for Kyle Tucker to the point that they were “uncomfortable” about the cost. What would you have traded for Tucker?

Follow-up question: fans have speculated that the opt-out after two years was the dealbreaker in the Corbin deal, and that Buster only wants players who will be here for the long haul. If the Giants did land Tucker, he would have only been under team control for one year before free agency and come at a higher prospect cost to boot. How can we make sense of these two seemingly contradictory data points about what the FO values?

I’m not sure if these players count as “coming out of nowhere” but Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, and Casey Schmitt are all in similar positions to what Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald were in a year ago: wholly unproven youngsters with big tools and big red flags, and I can see any of them putting the pieces together for a 2-3 WAR season. If I had to pick one, give me Matos.

As for trading for Kyle Tucker, to me it depends on whether the Giants had the intention of extending or re-signing him. I’m all for acquiring superstars, which Tucker is, but I do think you have to be wary of mortgaging the farm for a short-term solution when you’re not a very good team to begin with (I’m all for doing it if you’re starting with a strong base, like the Yankees with Juan Soto). If the Giants were willing to pay the price to keep Tucker, I could be talked into trading just about anyone other than Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey for him … yes, even Bryce Eldridge. But if he’s just a rental, I’d rather stay away from Eldridge and any core MLB players.

And as to your final point … I’d start by saying that there are different types of short-term contracts, and the Giants have seen that first-hand with their pair of opt-out pillow contracts that they signed last year. It was pretty clear that Blake Snell was signing a deal with the hopes of performing well, opting out, and signing with a team willing to spend $150-200 million on a starting pitcher, which everyone knew was not the Giants. And it was equally clear that Matt Chapman was signing a deal with the hopes of performing well, proving to the Giants that he was worthy of the contract he had initially been chasing, and then signing that contract with them. And you could feel the difference between those two approaches all year, even though they were both essentially one-year deals.

That’s a big difference. Corbin Burnes wanted an opt-out because his goal was to pitch well, opt-out, and then find another team to pay him more money. That stands in opposition to, say, Verlander signing a one-year deal, where you know you’re getting a player who is committed for the long haul, he just hasn’t earned the deal yet. I would assume the ideal for both Verlander and the Giants is that he plays well enough to sign an extension during the year, which isn’t something that you could say about Snell or Burnes.

Tucker doesn’t really fit into either category, but there’s certainly a difference between a player you acquire with one year left on their contract, and a player who is signing a contract specifically designed to give them every opportunity to leave your team. For Buster Posey — who surely knows that you can’t build a whole team out of long-term deals — I suspect that’s the biggest key. I haven’t gotten the sense that Posey needs roster consistency as much as he wants to build around players who are committed to the team.

The difference between Chapman and Snell wasn’t that they were on different contracts. It was that, with the season essentially over, Chapman wanted to take the field the day of his contract extension even though he hadn’t passed his physical and would risk injury, and Snell opted to not make his final start so he could enter free agency fully healthy. Neither of those is wrong, but it’s the difference that Posey is highlighting when he talks about long-term deals.

DontMentionTheWar:

Plant-based aquatic ingredients: passing fad, or the future of food?

Both. I think any food fad that gets sciency is a little of both. People find out what interesting ingredients can do, and they get a little too into them, and then they get burnt out, and then they fade back to their intended purposes.

I’d say that most plant-based aquatic ingredients that are catching popularity now have been pretty popular behind the scenes for a while. Algae has been used for a very long time in beer brewing, and agar agar has been quietly popular before vegans went wild for it.

But, you know … this cycle always happens. Foods and techniques get quietly used, then they get loudly used, then they fade back into quietness but leave a lasting impact. Plant-based aquatic ingredients will keep playing a big role in the food industry and can really help with forms of stabilization, preservation, and sustainability, so that’s exciting.

daveinexile:

“If each starting pitcher was a beer and pub grub in the first month what would they be?”

Of coarse this might require too much research for a mail bag or end up being irrelevant.

Well if this isn’t a perfect question, I don’t know what is.

Logan Webb is Sierra Nevada Pale Ale and a cheeseburger. Reliable and consistently excellent, and an inland Northern California legend.

Jordan Hicks is Pliny the Younger and a complimentary serving of chips and salsa. Shockingly good, but you just don’t know how long it’s going to last.

Kyle Harrison is the house pilsner and fish ‘n’ chips at a brewery you’re frequenting for the first time. You know you’ll enjoy it and it won’t be bad. And you know it might be great. But you know it might also just be … ehh, whatever. You have high hopes, and you’ll soon find out.

Justin Verlander is a Lagunitas IPA and some locally-caught fish tacos. You were really annoyed when he was some other city’s signature beer and awesome food, and no one would shut up about him, but now that he’s your city’s signature beer and awesome food, you’re realizing just how freaking great he is.

Robbie Ray is a triple IPA and some wagyu sliders from trendy brewery. Powerful. Not always available. Really good as long as you’re not thinking about the price.

Yeah, let’s call it quits here.