Mailbag!

Because what else is there to talk about?

It’s the worst week of the baseball season. The San Francisco Giants can’t do anything, because the World Series is about to start. But the Los Angeles Dodgers are in that World Series, so you’re not even excited to see what happens come Friday night.

So let’s distract ourselves with a mailbag. Thanks for the questions, everyone.

My answer might change after the offseason if the Giants make some big moves. But, as things currently stand, the Giants need to do two things to have a successful season … and they’re the same two things I thought they needed to do to have a successful 2024 season.

The first is be competitive. They need to, at a bare minimum, be in the postseason discussion from late March until late September. If they’re within eyesight of mediocrity, it needs to be peering over the wall of .500 from above, not from below. Give fans a reason to watch September games beyond spoiling Arizona’s season.

The second is to lay the foundation for future successful teams. In fairness, the Giants did a somewhat-decent job of this goal in 2024, but there’s a lot more work to be done. The best teams are the ones that have a core of high-quality players under team control for the foreseeable future. That competitive core not only ensures quality play that’s sustainable, but it gives the team money to spend filling in the gaps and chasing stars … while also appealing to those stars.

San Francisco has three key building blocks locked up long-term: Logan Webb, Matt Chapman, and Patrick Bailey. You can add Ryan Walker to that list if you’d like. But they need a few more. Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald have shown that they might be those types of players. The Giants certainly hope Jung Hoo Lee is. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong inspire all kinds of optimism. Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt, Grant McCray, Landen Roupp, Trevor McDonald, Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, and Mason Black all have exciting potential. Bryce Eldridge and Carson Whisenhunt will likely debut next year.

That trio of Webb/Chapman/Bailey needs to become a septet or octet of high-quality players under long-term team control. That, combined with a competitive year in the standings, would be a successful season in my eyes, because it would set the team up for sustained greater success in the following years.

At the risk of sounding like a Farhan Zaidi apologist, Buster Posey was given a team headed in the right direction, which is not common when there’s a regime change. When Zaidi took over, for instance, it was a team that was getting worse, with attendance plummeting. Thanks in large part to the young players on the roster, the Giants team that Zaidi leaves behind is one that is getting better, and, vital to your question, that is seeing increased attendance.

The Giants still have work to do on that front, but their attendance in 2024 was nearly 2,000 fans per game better than the year prior, and their best season since before the pandemic. A Blake Snell departure could hurt that slightly, but not as much as Jung Hoo Lee’s return and Bryce Eldridge’s debut will help it.

We’ve been hearing for years that if the Giants want to improve attendance, they need to have players that fans not only connect to, but know they can see every day at the park. Matt Chapman is one of those players. Heliot Ramos is one of those players. Patrick Bailey is one of those players. Tyler Fitzgerald is one of those players. Lee is one of those players. The stage is set for Posey’s Giants to take another step forward with attendance, as those players (hopefully) get even better, more youngsters (hopefully) arrive, and the team (hopefully) is more competitive.

I don’t say this to defend Farhan Zaidi, because I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve done too much of that in recent years. But, in the aftermath of the switch from Zaidi to Buster Posey — primarily the stories that have come out from the beat reporters — it’s becoming increasingly clear that the decision to move on from Zaidi was less about the team’s three-year run of mediocrity, and more about the way that mediocrity was packaged.

Sure, Zaidi could have saved his job by building a perennial contender. But it sure feels like the ugly details — the mishandling of Marco Luciano, the poor communication with Brandon Crawford, the constant churn at the back of the roster, the insistence on the analytically correct but aesthetically incorrect moves, etc. — were what really prompted a regime change.

It increasingly feels like a strong possibility that the 2025 Giants will look eerily similar to the 2024 Giants sans Blake Snell, in both personnel and performance. And if they are notably better next year, it certainly seems likely that those improvements will come from players Zaidi put in place — a full year of Jung Hoo Lee, improvement from Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison, the arrival of Bryce Eldridge, and so forth.

But that doesn’t mean that they should have just kept Zaidi. The way it’s packaged matters, and the way it’s used to build the next era of Giants teams matters, and while I didn’t advocate for the Giants to make a front office change, I certainly can’t argue against it, either.

Anyway, to answer the actual question, I don’t expect them to spend heavy. They exceeded the tax this year, and will probably try to avoid the repeater tax to reset the penalty. That still leaves them plenty of money to spend, given that the Snell and Michael Conforto contracts are coming off the books, in addition to Alex Cobb and Jorge Soler. But I don’t expect them to throw money at all their problems, or even most of them.

Pretty damn low, he says with great sadness.

Funnily enough, I was trending towards thinking the Giants had a decent chance of re-signing Blake Snell as the end of the season wore on. And when they made the shift from Farhan Zaidi to Buster Posey, my initial thought was that it greatly increased the odds. While avoiding long-term contracts to pitchers in their 30s was one of Zaidi’s leading philosophies, it was easy to guess that Posey might feel differently. He was a catcher, after all, and one who won three titles catching fantastic staffs. And the former front office that he so openly admires gave huge contracts to Barry Zito, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija. It was easy to talk myself into thinking Posey would talk himself into Snell.

But it sure doesn’t seem like that. Posey’s remarks about Snell have been tepid at best, and none of the beat reporters have even hinted at good chances of a reunion.

Perhaps it’s just a front. Perhaps they’ll have a change of heart once a GM comes in. Perhaps Snell’s market will, for the second year, never fully materialize. But I certainly don’t expect him to be wearing a Giants jersey next year.

I’m not sure that there is a set plan at first base, but I do feel pretty strongly that, insofar as any plan exists, it includes a bullet point saying, “not a LaMonte Wade Jr./Wilmer Flores platoon.”

It’s easy to envision either Wade or Flores being a part of next year’s roster, but it’s pretty hard to envision both of them. Platooning players who don’t have any other positional versatility (unless they put Wade back in the outfield) just doesn’t seem like a smart plan, and they weren’t strong enough last year to warrant running that position back. It’s also a pretty weak defensive platoon, which is notable for a groundball-heavy staff.

I don’t think there’s a plan yet. Could be Wade. Could be Flores. Could be Paul Goldschmidt. But I doubt it’ll be Wade and Flores.

The most likely plan with Jerar Encarnación is that he’s designated for assignment in the coming weeks. The second-most likely plan is that he comes to Spring Training, competes for a job, doesn’t get it, and is either traded or designated for assignment.

Encarnación is awesome, and was one of the best stories on the team last year (low bar, I know). But it’s just very hard to paint a picture of the team going forward that includes him in it. While his power was a sheer delight, there’s a reason that he started the season playing in Mexico, and that the Giants were likely the only Major League team interested in him. And while he played significantly better than he did in his MLB debut in 2022, Encarnación was still a below-average hitter by both OPS+ and wRC+, which is made worse by the fact that he’s a significantly below-average defensive player.

But most important is the fact that, because Encarnación debuted in 2022, he’s now out of options. The Giants cannot option him to the Minor Leagues to start the season. He’s either on the Opening Day roster or not on the team. The latter seems far more likely.

Can I say Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next offseason? Pretty please?

I won’t pretend to have any idea who Matt Chapman was talking about. Veterans have a lot of friends, and often those guys aren’t even good, as anyone who has watched LeBron James’ shadow-GMing can attest to.

But hopefully Guerrero.

I’m not sure I agree with the notion that they’d be more important or more “money” with a worse team managed by Alyssa Nakken. She’s a trailblazer and a historical baseball figure, and she deserves better than to be tokenized by an organization in search of a PR win.

She deserved to interview, and it’s good that she was. The same can be said of Kai Correa. But ultimately, it was clear what direction the Giants needed to go in. They needed a more traditional manager to offset Farhan Zaidi’s hyper-analytical views, and they needed a highly-trusted, calming presence after Gabe Kapler had lost the clubhouse and the team’s leaders were openly complaining about a lack of accountability.

That fix wasn’t going to come from someone with just a few years as an assistant, who is younger than some players on the team, and hasn’t yet become that leadership voice across baseball.

Nakken will keep coaching, and keep interviewing, and hopefully get a managerial job at some point. Hopefully even with the Giants. But it wasn’t her time last year and that’s OK. She deserves to get her chance when it is her time, not when the organization wants to pretend to be progressive so people will stop talking about the fact that they’re bad at baseball.

That’s a really, really good question. Bo Bichette is coming off an awful year, which came after only having excellent years. On the one hand, the Giants would be buying low; on the other hand, Toronto probably wouldn’t want to sell low, so they’d require something bigger than what initially feels right.

But Bichette is a rental, and we’ve seen teams cling way too tightly to prospects in recent years. If the Giants are willing to break from that frankly bizarre industry trend, Bichette could maybe be had for a few mid-level prospects and an MLB player (LaMonte Wade Jr.? Taylor Rogers?).

That said, I’d expect him to stay with Toronto, so they can hope for a bounce back. That way, if they’re not contending, they can flip him at the deadline to a desperate team.

Very, very, very, very, very high.

Buster Posey loves Mike Yastrzemski. Bob Melvin loves Mike Yastrzemski. The Giants clubhouse loves Mike Yastrzemski. And he’ll be paid a very fair amount in his final year of arbitration.

Most importantly, the Giants only have two Opening Day outfielders right now: Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee. They need a starting right fielder, and I’d argue that Yaz is the best option available other than Juan Soto, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernández. And even if they get one of those three, they’ll still need a fourth outfielder.

I look forward to seeing Luis Matos, Grant McCray, Wade Meckler, and perhaps even Marco Luciano fight to become part of the team’s long-term outfield plan next year. But none of those four are even close to being players that the Giants can count on to make the Opening Day roster.

10 points for creativity!

But to be honest, I don’t think either team makes that trade. Even after a tough season, the Houston Astros are still contenders, and I have a hard time imagining them trading one of their best players. It would also be something of a PR disaster to let Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman walk, and then trade Kyle Tucker without even trying to re-sign him.

And from the Giants perspective? Tucker is absolutely awesome, and played at an MVP pace when he was healthy this year. But the Giants are in the process of establishing a young core that they can build on for years, and they adore Kyle Harrison. I just don’t see them trading five years of a building block pitcher for one year of someone who, even if they convince him to re-sign, will probably cost them $250-350 million. Better to just sign those players in free agency and keep your young core players.

Now this is a fun one. If the Minnesota Twins are looking to shed salary ahead of a franchise sale, then Correa could be on the way out. And my goodness that would be an addition both fun and funny.

Still and all, Correa is owed more than $133 million over four years, with some somewhat terrifying vesting option years afterwards. That’s not a bad contract, per se, but I’m guessing the Giants think they can get similar production for much cheaper with Ha-Seong Kim, and not have to give up anything to make it happen.

I think they need talent, regardless of position. Juan Soto tops my offseason wishlist, but assuming they fail there, Blake Snell — a very different player! — would be my next hope. They just need talent, and let the pieces fall as they may.

That said, they absolutely need to get a shortstop this offseason. They really don’t have any internal options there, unlike with other positions.

Well if we’re dreaming, I’ll take Elly De La Cruz, please!

More realistically, I don’t think there are any notable young and controllable players that would be available for anything the Giants are comfortable offering. They should certainly call Baltimore and talk about all those young infielders, though…

Pretty much everyone has given up on the Giants being legitimate contenders for Juan Soto, but since you’re asking my opinion, that’s the first name. They should target Soto and, since he’s a Scott Boras client, I think they could realistically sign him by doing one very simple thing: offering an obscene amount of money.

Soto is a different level of superstar, and also hitting the market at a hilariously-young age: he’s only seven months older than Patrick Bailey! He’s only 10 months older than Heliot Ramos!

He’ll get an amount of money, likely from a New York team, that will make your eyes do funny things. To which I say: with the benefit of hindsight, don’t you wish the Giants offered Aaron Judge $500 million instead of $360 million? Don’t you wish they offered Bryce Harper $500 million instead of $310 million? Wouldn’t those have been the right moves?

So when MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs and ESPN drop their contract predictions, my opinion is that the Giants should find the number predicted for Soto, call Boras, and immediately offer $200 million more.

But they won’t. So from there I would double down on pitching and defense by re-signing Blake Snell and signing Ha-Seong Kim, both players who I firmly believe would choose to sign with the Giants if San Francisco met their market price. Then I’d sign Paul Goldschmidt on a one-year deal to be a mentor (both offensively and defensively) to Bryce Eldridge. That’s a good and doable offseason in my opinion, even though it also won’t happen.

Oh no, no, no. You won’t bait me into this! I know what the press is trying to do, get me to answer a controversial question so I can be a soundbite. I won’t fall victim to that!

Instead, three bridge thoughts:

1. The Richmond-San Rafael Bridge is highly underrated.
2. Forget all the stuff that free agents and talking heads said about San Francisco last offseason, the traffic on the Bay Bridge is far and away the worst thing about the city.
3. The view (on a clear or only mildly-foggy day) when emerging from the Robin Williams Tunnel and driving southbound is the single greatest (human-built) view in the country.

This! I enrage the masses on Twitter with my takes about the Giants and write personal essays thinly veiled as game stories on McCovey Chronicles. I also do the same for the Golden State Warriors at our sister site, Golden State of Mind.

Working in sports has its downsides, but I feel very blessed to make a solid living watching and writing about sports. Very blessed.

Trick question. If a tree falls in the forest it’s because Madison Bumgarner cut it down.