After coming up short in 2024 (quality-wise), do the Giants finally have enough pitching to make it through the season?
Last January, we examined the pitching staff to see if the San Francisco Giants had enough arms to cover their innings in 2024. They technically did have enough arms to cover their innings, but the spirit of that discussion — and this one — was whether or not those were good innings. Has the situation changed as we near the start to the 2025 season?
With actual ball-knower and perpetual winner Buster Posey now running the show, let’s see if the team truly has enough pitching talent on-paper to overcome the previous regime’s staggering failures in planning and development. Just a few weeks ago, pitching coach J.P. Martinez was under the impression that there were “15 or 16 legitimate starters” in the fold.
Here are the innings totals for the Giants from the last three seasons (bullpen innings in parenthesis):
2024 – 1433.2 IP (655 IP)
2023 – 1434.2 IP (705.1 IP)
2022 – 1433 IP (650 IP)
Off the top of your head, you probably look at those figures and conclude that the Giants can meet that number with mostly quality performances. An added year of experience for the younger arms plus healthier veterans should push them past the finish line. Let’s see!
First, here are the innings totals from last season (my prediction in parenthesis) — keeping in mind that some of the relievers did make starts (which links their innings for those appearances to the SP-RP breakdown noted above), and some of these relievers might be more starter than reliever in 2025 (which will impact our projection efforts later on).
STARTERS
Logan Webb, 204.2 IP (200 IP)
Kyle Harrison, 124.1 IP (120 IP)
Jordan Hicks, 109.2 (100 IP)
Blake Snell, 104 IP (was not yet on the team!)
Hayden Birdsong, 72 IP (not projected)
Keaton Winn, 55.1 IP (110 IP)
Mason Black, 36.1 IP (not projected)
Robbie Ray, 30.2 IP (50 IP)
= 737 IP
RELIEVERS
Sean Hjelle, 80.2 IP (not projected)
Ryan Walker, 80 IP (60 IP)
Tyler Rogers, 70.1 IP (70 IP)
Erik Miller, 67.1 IP (not projected)
Taylor Rogers, 60 IP (60 IP)
Camilo Doval, 59 IP (70 IP)
Randy Rodriguez, 52.1 IP (not projected)
Landen Roupp, 50.1 IP (not projected)
Spencer Bivens, 48.2 IP (not projected)
Luke Jackson, 35 IP (60 IP)
Spencer Howard, 24 IP (not projected)
Tristan Beck, 16 IP (not projected)
Nick Avila, 11.2 IP (not projected)
Kai-Wei Teng, 11 IP (not projected)
Austin Warren, 10.2 IP (not projected)
Mitch White, 5.1 IP (not projected)
Position players, 5 IP (not projected)
Daulton Jefferies, 4.2 IP (not projected)
Trevor McDonald, 3 IP (not projected)
Raymond Burgos, 1 IP (not projected)
Mike Baumann, 0.2 IP (not projected)
= 694.1 IP
Now, for whatever reason, I can’t get these numbers to match that innings total (I keep getting 1,429), but hopefully, my addition skills won’t be a barrier for this examination.
Above I mentioned experience and recovered veterans as being reasons for optimism this season — well, statistically, that showed up last season, too. In the first half of the schedule (March/April through June), the Giants’ pitching staff was 23rd in MLB (13th in the NL) thanks to a 4.50 ERA (3.92 FIP). They were worth just 5.3 fWAR and the team was 41-44. Over the final three months of the season (July through September), they were 14th in MLB (6th in the NL) in terms of value (+6.9 fWAR) thanks to a 3.66 ERA (matched by a 3.66 FIP). Of course, their sub-average lineup (94 wRC+) limited them to just a 39-38 record.
But still! That’s some data for optimism. Sure, the team lost Blake Snell, and he was pretty great when he pitched. In his place they’ve got some question marks with upside. I doubt Buster Posey is thinking in terms of replacing Snell in the aggregate, but that’s not the lift here, anyway. The Giants need quality innings across the board. So, since the organization — and some on this site — believe the team is stocked up, let’s prove it.
Keeping in mind that they need around 1,430 innings (before the postseason, of course), here’s my projection for the innings breakdown:
STARTERS
Logan Webb – 190 IP
Kyle Harrison – 135 IP
Hayden Birdsong – 125 IP
Jordan Hicks – 100 IP
Justin Verlander – 96 IP
Robbie Ray – 90 IP
Landen Roupp – 50 IP
Mason Black/Carson Whisenhunt/Ethan Small – 44 IP
= 830 IP
As you can see, I was fairly conservative here. I think it’s reasonable to plan for Webb being not quite so reliable. I’ll acknowledge Harrison’s offseason work (recovering from injury, shedding Bryan Price as pitching coach) as a reason to be cautiously optimistic, and I’m a Birdsong fanatic until proven otherwise. Still, he got pushed extra hard last season and that was in the ~130 innings range between the minors and majors — I suspect he will just be paced a little better this year to save the arm.
Meanwhile, I grapple with Verlander being able to break 100 innings, not after just ~90 last season; so, I’ve given him the Randy Johnson innings total from 2009. Robbie Ray is an injury guy. I don’t know what the expectation out to be. I’m sure the team believes he can flourish and provide 150 innings. I don’t!
The last three names are part of the mystery of this entire offseason. Those sure are some names. Maybe they’ll be starters. Maybe not! Still — some sort of prospect-y mish-mash of arms starting for 134 innings or so makes a lot of sense. You could swap out Whisenhunt with Ethan Small or even throw Joey Lucchesi in there — it’s your call later on.
RELIEVERS
Tyler Rogers, 70 IP
Ryan Walker – 65 IP
Camilo Doval – 65 IP
Tristan Beck – 65 IP
Sean Hjelle – 60 IP
Randy Rodriguez – 55 IP
Erik Miller – 55 IP
Trevor McDonald – 50 IP
Keaton Winn – 50 IP
Joey Lucchesi – 35 IP
Raymond Burgos – 30 IP
= 600 IP
Again, conservative here. I sure do hope Beck is healthy and as much as I love the stuff, I think he’s proven he’s best as a multi-inning reliever. Remarkably, Sean Hjelle led the Giants’ relievers in innings last year. I think we all agree that Beck is an upgrade over Hjelle. Tyler Rogers has been so consistent I can’t predict this is the year when he his streak of consistency ends (unlike Webb). Ryan Walker was really pushed last year and as Roger Munter noted many times throughout 2024 regarding Camilo Doval, that overuse in the prior year almost certainly contributed to current season woes; therefore, I just think that, as good as Walker is, he’s due for some struggles — or, at least, won’t be overused.
That’s because Walker and Doval should have some help in terms of these almost starters who can be effective in a pinch or provide multiple innings, shortening games. Keaton Winn just hasn’t managed to stay healthy — that’s the primary trait of a relief pitcher. Relievers are also fungible and prone to following up solid or good seasons with bad ones only to be solid or good again the next year. Maybe Randy Rodriguez doesn’t hit 55 innings for various reasons — it seems reasonable that the Giants have the arms to capably fill the void.
That year of experience for the younger players really does go a long way towards curbing anxieties about things like workload and competitiveness, doesn’t it? The pitching plan might not work out in 2025 either, but it’s not as anxiety-inducing as last year’s.
So, give it a shot. Copy-paste your own totals (adding players to either list as you see fit, moving ones you think should be starters or relievers to the appropriate list).
STARTERS
Logan Webb –
Kyle Harrison –
Hayden Birdsong –
Jordan Hicks –
Justin Verlander –
Robbie Ray –
Landen Roupp –
Mason Black/Carson Whisenhunt/Triple-A vet –
=
RELIEVERS
Tyler Rogers –
Ryan Walker –
Camilo Doval –
Tristan Beck –
Sean Hjelle –
Randy Rodriguez –
Erik Miller –
Trevor McDonald –
Keaton Winn –
Joey Lucchesi –
Raymond Burgos –
=
TOTAL = 1,430 IP