Marco Luciano was once a top-20 baseball prospect but has struggled to show his true potential. The Giants hope this year he can finally show it off. Luciano signed as an international free agent in 2018. He quickly built a strong reputation. His fast hands and serious power potential left many expecting a star.
Is a Breakout on the Horizon for This Former Top Prospect with the Giants?
Unfortunately, though, things haven’t turned out how we thought. His defense at shortstop led many to realize his future lay elsewhere. In fact, Bob Melvin has made it clear that Luciano will play corner outfield this spring. A move that impacts his potential value and helps to explain the lack of trust in the youngster.
The move allows Luciano to focus on his hitting. He admits he was “totally lost” at the plate last season. A point that is becoming all too familiar to hear from hitting prospects in San Francisco. Joey Bart, the former second-overall pick, joined Pittsburgh after struggling with the Giants. Here, his career of .623 OPS was diminished by an OPS of .799 across 80 games. Giants fans will hope Luciano won’t end up the same way.
Bob Melvin said Marco Luciano will only play the corner outfield spots this spring. Luciano admitted this morning that he was “totally lost” at the plate last season, but he took a break to clear his head in the offseason and then worked on adjustments with his swing.
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) February 14, 2025
Why remain high on Luciano?
From the moment he signed, people renowned Luciano for his fast hands. He was seen by many as a potential 30-home-run threat, along with a good eye. For much of his minor-league career, this rang true. As recently as 2023, he hit 11 home runs in 56 double-A games. Additionally, his walk rate has consistently been above ten percent.
There are clear signs of this correlating to the big leagues, too. Across two seasons and 126 plate appearances, Luciano chased just 18.7% of the time. That’s nearly ten percent better than the league average. His power also showed itself when we looked deeper. His hard-hit percentage was 48.6% in the last two years, 12.1% better than the league average.
Despite struggling to lift the ball in 2023, 2024 saw him have a league-average launch angle. In fact, regardless of this, he consistently has had an xwOBACON of over .400 in the big leagues. His .408 career average is identical to Jarren Duran‘s 2024, where he ended up with an impressive .834 OPS. I’m sure Giants fans wouldn’t mind that one bit.
What has gone wrong to get here?
Despite contact generally being impressive, it, unfortunately, is a rarity. He has struck out a mammoth 35.7 percent of the time for the Giants. A number that leaves you very little hope of succeeding as a major leaguer. This isn’t new; he has always struck out throughout his minor-league career. You can strike out at 30 percent and still be successful, but that’s not easy. Luciano’s chasing is not an issue.
Whatever the issue is, there’s been a clear struggle to solve it. Mental can play a big part in it, of course. A distinct lack of slug in the big leagues is very much attributed to that. Melvin said that a lack of playing time has that effect on guys. Whether he’s trusted enough to have an extended run remains to be seen.
Main Photo Credits: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images
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