The Royals are holding on to one of the Wild Card spots — can the Giants make that grasp more tenuous?
If there’s one thing the San Francisco Giants haven’t gotten any credit for is hiring the person who has a foolproof equation that guarantees a minimum of 75 wins year in and year out. The team has met or exceeded that 46% win rate in five straight seasons and now they’re just one win away from dropping that mission accomplished banner once more.
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And before you think this is ONLY damning with faint praise, consider that these Kansas City Royals, on the verge of clinching a postseason berth for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015, have won 75 or more games in a season for the first time since 2017, when they went 80-82 and their competitive window closed.
The Giants are 1 of only 9 teams to have won at least 75 games (or, factoring in the 2020 season, 46% of the time) in each of the last 6 seasons. Of this group (Atlanta, Cleveland, Houston, the Dodgers, Milwaukee, the Yankees, Phillies, Giants and Rays), the Giants have the fewest wins, which means they’ve been the best of the worst, but it’s still an accomplishment of sorts. The execution of a perfect plan to achieve sub-average results.
At one time on this site, we’ve discussed which situation would you rather have: an Altanta situation where you root for a Giants team that wins the division every year but never a World Series, or a situation where the Giants win the World Series from time to time but are bad or below average in between all that. We never really dealt with the Royals situation, where they’re bad until glimpses of being good. 2024 marks just the 6th winning season Kansas City fans have enjoyed in the 21st century. That’s a lot of futility.
The good news for these fans is that there’s a holdover from the last time the team was good. Salvador Perez is a 34-year old catcher now who is still posting huge hitting numbers. When the Giants faced him in the 2014 World Series, he’d hit 17 home runs that season (his age-24 season) and had a career line of .285/.315/.433 with 44 home runs in 403 games (1,595 PA). Over the ensuing 9 seasons, he’s amassed 229 more home runs, 1,134 hits and put up a slash line of .262/.300/.470. That’s the most home runs at the catcher position since the start of 2015 by a wide margin. Gary Sanchez is 2nd place with 183. For his career, his .460 slugging is tied with Buster Posey (and Ernie Lombardi) for 25th in major league history at the catcher position.
And they’re mixing the old with the new in the form of Bobby Witt Jr., one of the most exciting players in baseball if you are able to get beyond the Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge headlines that tend to dominate the sport these days (for good reason, of course). He and Judge are in a virtual tie for most valuable player in the sport (Judge: 10.2 fWAR, Witt Jr.: 10.0) and the MVP vote will at least be an interesting conversation. Judge’s 53 home runs to Witt Jr.’s 32 is a significant difference for a lot of voters, but Witt Jr. is doing this while playing above average defense as a shortstop.
On top of the old guy-young guy combo, the Royals have exciting pitching. Friend of the Giants’ Michael Wacha, whose memorable appearance in 2014 led to the Giants appearing in that World Series has been a key contributor in the rotation. Seth Lugo, who converted from reliever to starter under Bob Melvin’s watch last year in San Diego (not quite like Jordan Hicks has done this year as Lugo had started earlier in his career), is a leading contender for AL Cy Young. Brady Singer has gone from promising prospect to disappointing prospect to solid mid-rotation starter here in his 5th season (something to keep in mind when thinking about Kyle Harrison, maybe?). The bullpen features Chris Stratton and Will Smith (though both are on the IL at the moment), but also Sam Long, who is pitching well (3.20 ERA / 3.76 FIP in 39.1 IP).
It’s a kooky mini reunion of former Giants, and that’s before we fold in Paul DeJong and Tommy Pham, one a former Giant (briefly) who helped end their postseason chances with poor play in 2023, the other the dude who slapped Joc Pederson and the Giants’ playoff chances away in 2022.
The Royals dropped four straight, lost 6 of 9, and 13 of 20. They have a tough mix of injury issues. Not just the two former Giant relievers are out, but their power hitting first baseman, Vinnie Pasquantino, appears to be lost for at least the rest of the regular season and they’re without their regular closer, James McArthur. The Giants nearly swept the Orioles in Baltimore with that team at fairly full strength; but, with some similarly inspired play, they could payback Tommy Pham a little bit here or rub more salt in the wound for winning the World Series in Kauffman Stadium back in 2014.
Series details
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals
Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
When: Friday (5:10pm PT), Saturday (4:10pm PT), Sunday (11:10am PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Thursday)
Projected starters
Friday: Mason Black vs. Michael Wacha
Saturday: Landen Roupp vs. Brady Singer
Sunday: Blake Snell vs. Seth Lugo
Where they stand
Royals, 82-71 (2nd in ALC, ALWC #2), 718 RS / 620 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6
Giants, 74-79 (4th in NLW, -11.0 WC), 651 RS / 670 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6
Royals to watch
Yuli Gurriel: In Pasquantino’s absence, the Royals have turned to the playoff veteran who couldn’t find major league work for most of this season after a dismal .663 OPS season in Miami in 2023. He has 8 postseason home runs in 356 postseason playoff appearance (all but 1 with the Astros). He spent most of this season on Atlanta’s Triple-A team (Gwinnett) with 12 home runs in 333 PA (.863 OPS). In 33 PA with the Royals here in September, he’s got 10 hits (2 doubles), and 5 walks against 6 strikeouts. He’s driven in 5 runs.
Royals pitching: Despite their injuries, their bullpen has been solid (2.86 FIP since September 1st). Daniel Lynch IV and Carlos Hernandez have combined to allow 0 runs in 18 IP. Lugo, Singer, and Wacha present starting matchups that could go either way for the Giants — they are all contact pitchers who don’t walk a lot of guys. They could suddenly have big strikeout games or the Giants could ambush and score runs thanks to seeing more pitches in the zone.
Bobby Witt Jr.: Okay, I won’t be cute with this section. The Giants will be taking on one of the best players in the sport. He’s definitely one to watch. In his last 9 games (in which KC has gone 3-6), he’s 9-for-35 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI. So, it’s not that he’s slowed down that’s caused the Royals to scuffle here of late, and if the Giants do somehow manage to shut him down — and that seems unlikely as they haven’t been able to contain the likes of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani this season — that might inspire his teammates to step up.
Giants to watch
Marco Luciano: Will he play? Won’t he play? Will it matter?
Matt Chapman: He’s played 14 games in Kauffman Stadium and in 54 plate appearances has a triple slash of .367/.426/.592 with 8 doubles and a home run. He’s never faced Seth Lugo before, but he’s a combined 5-for-7 with 3 doubles against Singer & 1-for-6 with a double against Wacha.
Blake Snell: Last year’s NL Cy Young, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate since July 2nd (1.33 ERA in 74.1 IP), will face off against this year’s presumptive AL Cy Young in a park he hasn’t appeared in since 2019, when he was shelled for 7 runs in 3 IP.