Giants revert to the mean

They were bound to lose again eventually.

At some point during the San Francisco Giants 11-0 demolition of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night, I fired off a tweet asking an innocent enough question: if the Giants re-signed all of their free agents this offseason, made no other moves, and ran it back with the exact same roster, how many games do you think they’d win?

The responses were predictable, ranging from a whole host of people who somehow thought the team would get demonstrably worse, to an even larger host of people thinking they’d finish exactly at .500, to a few optimistic folks who pegged the Giants for 85-90 wins.

But truthfully, it was a rhetorical question. The answers didn’t matter much, and could easily be traced to the optimism or pessimism that someone attaches to their online persona. I was really just trying to make a point.

And that point? That the Giants are, at long last, seeing their vision come to life. They are following the blueprint for the season — they just had to pull it out of the trash bin and unfurl it.

When the season began, the vision for the team was clear as (a non-foggy) day. The Giants would start the season with questions that needed answering, and holes that needed filling. Matt Chapman reported to camp after it started, and Blake Snell never really made it there; they would need time to get up to speed. Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray would begin the year injured; they would need time to get healthy. And the Giants large crop of unproven youngsters, which included prized free agent signing Jung Hoo Lee, would struggle through the early-season obstacles that nearly every rookie faces; they would need time to adjust and find their rhythm, while the Giants would need time to figure out which ones were truly ready to help a Major League team win ballgames.

The hope was that the Giants could tread water. They could hover slightly above .500 for half a year and then, as things clicked for the rookies and the late additions, and body parts healed, the Giants could take off. It was a solid plan, if one lacking a contingency plan that proved desperately needed.

A few problems arose, of course. The Giants didn’t really tread water, but instead started to sink. The second half of the plan — the good part — didn’t arrive swiftly enough, or successfully enough. And so, instead of going on a late run to secure their postseason standing, the Giants have had to go on a late run to flirt with the mediocre delight of a .500 season.

But in the last week-plus, the second half of that vision has arrived. The Giants lost to the D-Backs 8-2 on Wednesday, sure, but they still finished their nine-game road trip — against three teams in playoff position, and desperate for wins — with seven wins against two losses, and with 50 runs scored against 20 runs allowed.

And they’ve done it by following that blueprint. Now fully settled in, Chapman is arguably the best third baseman in baseball, while Snell is inarguably the best pitcher. It’s become clear which youngsters have overcome rookie hurdles and are ready to contribute, with Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, Landen Roupp, and Hayden Birdsong reliably bringing more to the table than they take off it.

The Giants have been a very good team lately, and just as importantly, they’ve looked the part. It’s not dinks and doinks by their own bats and at-’em balls by the opposition; it’s not journeyman having the best week of their careers and umps making questionable calls. It’s been the plan, exactly as they envisioned it, coming to fruition … just far too late.

And yet, even as the Giants give you reasons for optimism in 2025, they stop to remind you why 2024 did not work out the way they envisioned. And that’s how they lost 8-2.

Lee never had the chance to overcome his rookie struggles, as he suffered a season-ending injury early on. The Giants tried to patch the hole in center field with various forms of tape and, after none of them stuck, turned to young Grant McCray, an exciting spark plug who, on a more properly-constructed roster, would be an exciting spark plug in AAA. On Wednesday, he struck out in all four of his plate appearances, including two with a runner in scoring position.

The Giants never really bothered to figure out second base, casting aside Thairo Estrada and randomly cycling through Marco Luciano, Casey Schmitt, Brett Wisely, and Donovan Walton, never giving any player enough rope to run with the position. On Wednesday, Wisely won the Russian Roulette game and started, and he went hitless with two strikeouts, contributing to the terrifying 17 punch outs that Giants hitters fell prey to.

With three-fifths of the envisioned rotation on San Francisco’s IL (and another fifth on Cleveland’s IL), Mason Black was forced into starting action. He’s a promising prospect, but the best laid plans don’t include having your eighth or ninth starter face a division rival in late September. Black walked five of the 17 batters he faced, and allowed hits to another five, ultimately getting tagged for four runs without making it out of the third inning.

And that’s how the Giants lost. There were bright spots, to be sure. Fitzgerald despite a rough night in which he struck out three times, roped a gorgeous RBI double.

Ramos, who had the best offensive day by walking, singling, and doubling, also knocked in a run, though he killed his own rally by coming off the bag trying for a double. Wisely, despite the offensive foibles, made a killer defensive play to end an Arizona rally, and Patrick Bailey had an absolutely gorgeous throw to nab Corbin Carroll, who entered the game with 86 stolen bases in 98 career attempts.

But the Giants lost 8-2. They lost because, while the vision has finally come to life, it still has some holes. It’s still lacking the contingency plan that might have made Wednesday night competitive.

I’d rather be tasked with figuring out a contingency plan than drawing up a blueprint, though. The Giants won’t run it back — not exactly, at least. But the next time they’re in Arizona, Lee will (hopefully) be healthy, Ray will (hopefully) be healthy, Kyle Harrison will (hopefully) be healthy, Jordan Hicks will (hopefully) be healthy, and Snell will (hopefully) be re-signed.

It’s been a disappointing year, but how they’ve played lately ain’t a bad place to end. And come March, it won’t be a bad place start, either.