That said, do you think they can convince Anthony Santander to sign with them in the offseason?
With just 12 games left in another pitiable season, there’s no time to mince words. The San Francisco Giants are bad, the Orioles are good, and for the next three days we’ll probably see some severe baseball-related violence against Bob Melvin’s squadron.
The Giants are 9-18 against the AL East over the last two seasons which isn’t Melvin’s fault, nor is the team he’s been handed, a group of prospects with the ceiling of great depth pieces and veterans who would be great 3rd or 4th options on a better team. They had a chance to win a season series against a division rival that wasn’t the Rockies but instead were swept at home by the far superior Padres.
He’ll have two aces going for him in this three-game series though — Blake Snell and Logan Webb — and that’s not nothing, even if Snell seems likely to last just 5 innings and Webb more and more has the look of a dude who needs a break. Still, it’s the set of circumstances that creates weird situations in baseball, like a really bad team beating a really good team twice in a three-game series.
The Orioles lead the interleague matchup that began in 2002 11-10 and the Giants won a three game series in Baltimore as recently as 2019, when the Orioles were on their way to a record of 54-108. The Orioles got bad at exactly the same time as the Giants (2017) and from 2017-2021 they lost 455 games, the most in MLB, and 97 more than the Giants lost in that same span.
Since then, it’s been a different story. They’ve won the fourth-most games since 2022 (268), outpacing the Giants by 36. They might be the last example of a team that went full tank to eventually improve themselves, as MLB has changed the draft rules to prevent years and years of tanking. That, of course, hasn’t stopped the A’s and White Sox from continuing to do so even if they gain no competitive balance protection from it, but that’s a story for another time. Instead, the Orioles successfully tanked and the protracted behind the scenes battle between the Angelos family finally led to the team being sold to basically a Steve Cohen type who’s committed to more winning baseball in Baltimore in the future.
Last week, Grant Brisbee for The Athletic (sub required) pointed out that the Orioles haven’t signed a top-50 free agent in 5 years. The Giants have signed the second-most after the Mets. Is the tanking strategy preferable to whatever it is the Giants have been doing for the past decade? I don’t think so, but Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal have at least offered an interesting counter to my belief system:
23-year old Gunnar Henderson. 26-year old Adley Rutschman. 25-year old Heston Kjerstad. 24-year old Colton Cowser. 20-year old Jackson Holliday. The prospect capital to trade for Corbin Burnes and Trevor Rogers. They’ve put together an enviable core and now they have the financial might to supplement this group for a long time and in a supremely competitive division. It’s good to be the O’s, less so the G’s.
The Orioles’ 26 and under is their lineup. They have 2,585 plate appearances from players age 26 and under this season and that group leads the sport with 105 home runs and a 120 wRC+. The Giants check in — where else??! — in the middle of the pack (14th) with 66 home runs and a 98 wRC+. It’s a little bit closer with young pitching, as the O’s have 2.1 fWAR from 212 IP thrown by 26 and unders. The Giants have amassed 1.5 fWAR in 501 IP from that age split.
The wrinkle here is that the O’s haven’t been as mighty in life as they look on paper. Since July 1st, they’re just 31-35 with a -19 run differential. They’re 42-33 both home and away, and in the second half that’s worked out to a 14-17 road record and just 17-18 at home. They’re 6-6 against the NL West this season, with losing records against the Dodgers and Padres; but, they’ve lost 6 of their last 8. Is this an opportunity for the Giants or a chance for the Orioles to get back on track and make a run here in the final couple of weeks of the season?
Meanwhile, the Giants are on a 4-game losing streak and 11-20 since August 11th. Tonight kicks off an absolutely BUHHHHHHHHHHHHHH-ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTAL 9-game road trip just before the final weekend of the season. Three in Baltimore against the playoff-bound Orioles who are still vaguely fighting with the Yankees for the division crown. Then, three in Kansas City against the playoff-bound Royals who are still fighting with the Guards for the division crown. And it’ll wrap up in Arizona against the playoff-bound Diamondbacks who are still vaguely fighting with the Dodgers & Padres for the top of either the NL West or Wild Card division.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. There are just 12 games left, and the Giants only need a few wins to achieve the guaranteed minimum of 75 wins according to the front office’s roster model. I doubt the 3 wins left in the model will come over these next few days, but no matter what, because these games are on the east coast, our evenings will be free.
Series details
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
When: Tuesday (3:35pm PT), Wednesday (3:35pm PT), Thursday (10:05am PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Thursday)
Projected starters
Tuesday: Blake Snell vs. Albert Suarez
Wednesday: Hayden Birdsong vs. Dean Kremer
Thursday: Logan Webb vs. Zach Eflin
Where they stand
Orioles, 84-66 (2nd in ALE, ALWC #1), 727 RS / 644 RA | Last 10 games: 3-7
Giants, 72-78 (4th in NLW, -10.0 WC), 633 RS / 662 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6
Orioles to watch
Austin Slater: The Giants traded him to the Reds who traded him from the Orioles and in 26 games (14 starts) he’s posted a respectable .250/.354/.357. He’s not been used exclusively against lefties and he’s not often in the leadoff spot or the top two in the lineup — because the Orioles have actual talent that makes him simply a really solid depth piece — and he’s been fine. Serviceable. Exactly what the O’s have needed. Do I expect him to grip it and rip it in at least one of these games against his former team? Absolutely.
Anthony Santander: He’s hit 102 home runs over the last three seasons and he’s destined for free agency this offseason ahead of his age-30 season. The switch-hitter has a career slugging percentage of .480 which, as I noted in the Giants-Padres Series Preview on Friday, is a plateau that’s been a bit out of reach for the Giants over the past 6 seasons:
since 2019, the Giants have had just four players with a slugging percentage above .480 (min. 80 PA), and Encarnacion is one of those. The list:
Tyler Fitzgerald, 328 PA — .523
Stephen Vogt, 290 PA — .490
Alex Dickerson, 653 PA — .489
Jerar Encarnacion, 84 PA — .481
The rest of the top 10 is unsurprising but still a bummer: Joc Pederson (.470), Brandon Belt (.465), Grant McCray (.463), Mike Yastrzemski (.458), Matt Chapman (.453), Pablo Sandoval (.452). Just for context. The Dodgers have had 13 players with .480 or better slugging percentages (min 80 PA) since 2019; the Padres 9, and the Diamondbacks 7.
He hasn’t slumped with the Orioles, slashing .271/.368/.438 (.806 OPS) with a pair of homers here in September, but he’s been pitched around a lot, too, drawing 8 walks and 2 intentional walks in 57 PA.
He’d be an interesting free agent target even if you consider that the league switch and park switch would basically take him from a .480-.500 slug guy to .430-.450. Anyway, if he doesn’t mash in these three games, it’s only because the Giants will have gameplanned so that he’s not the one to beat them… unless these games devolve into blowouts.
Craig Kimbrel: I figure I should include a pitcher here. The starters are solid enough that you can easily imagine the Giants struggling agianst them, but their closer is Craig Kimbrel, who is a far, far cry from that dominate closer he once was. His 4.35 ERA follows a 4.16 FIP. The strikeouts are still there (71 in 51.2 IP) and he was an All-Star as recently as last season with the Phillies, but he’s having a rough season that’s really been bad in the second half. He headed into the All_Star Break with 23 saves in 28 opportunities and a 2.80 ERA/2.97 FIP — pretty good! In the second half, he’s got just 1 blown save but that’s because he’s basically no longer the closer. He has a 7.71 ERA (6.72 FIP) in 17 appearances (16.1 IP). I expect him to slam the door shut against the Giants in one of these games.
Giants to watch
Blake Snell & Hayden Birdsong: Two previews ago, these two only got a mention in the poll question at the end when there was so much more going on with their start in that series that was worth a mention. Snell was coming off a 1-inning outing and Birdsong a start that got away from him. Now, these Orioles are not those Diamondbacks, they’re actually better, but this is still an intense challenge for both guys late in the season with different things on the line.
Snell is playing for his next contract and if you start with July as his end of Spring Training he’s pitched at a Cy Young level: 3-0 in 12 starts, 93 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, and a 1.45 ERA (2.01 FIP). He pitched a no-hitter on the road, too. He’s had two bad starts in his last 4 (3 no hit innings in Seattle where he threw 74 pitches, a 1-inning nightmare against the Diamondbacks on September 5th). I would venture to guess that he will pitch in the final weekend of the season, which means this will be his antepenultimate start and it counts for exactly nothing except his stats.
He’s made 4 starts in Camden Yards and in 16 IP carries a 7.31 ERA with 5 home runs allowed.
Meanwhile, Birdsong is a dude who’s also hoping to finish strong. His 5 scoreless innings against the Brewers last week was a rare great start against a good team. He had that run against Atlanta, Cleveland and Minnesota (his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th career starts) where he looked really impressive (3.07 ERA in 14.2 IP) but the 5.19 FIP through his first four career starts certainly suggested there was a regression to the mean pending. Sure enough, since August 1st, he’s 0-5 and the Giants are 0-7 in his starts. He’s got a 6.75 ERA (6.32 FIP) in 26.2 IP. Let’s see if the Milwaukee start reflects a tweak to his game.
Heliot Ramos: After his Splash Hit, I believe he can do anything. Can he hit the B&O railroad warehouse beyond the right field wall? I don’t see why not.
LaMonte Wade Jr.: He’s never played a game in Baltimore?? He went to high school 12.5 miles away from Camden Yards. Sure, he’s hitting just .205/.327/.323 in the second half, but maybe playing in front of some hometown friends can dull the pain in his legs?
Prediction time