Camilo Doval began last year as the Giants closer for years to come. Now he’s fighting to remain in the bullpen. He became known as an elite closer in the sport by making a name for himself with an electric fastball and wicked slider. So much so that the Giants offered him a $50 million extension despite not reaching free agency until 2028. Last year, though, things fell apart for the 27-year-old, and he lost the closer job to Ryan Walker. A move that had to happen given the success Walker was having. With an impressive young group of pitchers reaching the majors and excitement growing, Doval must find his best stuff again.
What Went Wrong Last Year?
After three exceptional years, closer was one of the few positions the Giants had no worries about entering 2024. He had proven himself to not only be a great reliever with exceptional stuff. But also to be a trustworthy closer, even if he made things closer than he had to at times. Most closer as electric as Doval can have some issues with walks. In his all-star year, he still walked 9.3% of hitters. It just tends to offset when you strike out 31.3% and generate groundballs at 52.5%.
Unfortunately, Doval lost complete control of his fastball in 2024. His walk rate jumped to 14.4%, putting him in the bottom one percent of pitchers. Not only that, but hitters started striking him. Doval’s barrel rates jumped from 5 to 8.6%, which took him from the 88th to the 30th percentile. His cutter is mostly to blame for this. A pitch that in 2023 had a wOBA of just .224, jumped to .386 last year. Remember that Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper had lower wOBAs despite their great years.
The pitch clock did not treat Doval kindly either. He struggled to adapt to the fast pace it implemented. Signs that were clear in spring training but continued to plague him to start the year. He brings an exceptionally laid-back demeanor to the closer role, challenging many associated stereotypes. Being such a great strength, it contributed to his struggles to begin the year. After he returned from the minors to end the season, these issues had been cleaned up.
Why You Shouldn’t Worry
The Giants camp has no doubts that Doval will return to his best for good reasons, too. Firstly, a pitcher with his track record very often does. Relying on one year’s results and not the previous three years would be foolish, particularly given relievers’ smaller sample size. Small samples emphasize bad patches of form and can be heavily influenced by luck. If Doval had pitched to his expected stats, this may not even be a conversation we were having at all.
His 4.88 ERA across 59 innings was expected to be just 3.44 based on the contact quality. It’s still far from where he’d want to be, but a far more respectable result. Unsurprisingly, his overall wOBA of 3.27 dropped to .288. When the league average is .316, that makes a below-average season into a great one. In fact, despite struggles, Doval was still hard to hit. He posted a ridiculous 60.5% groundball rate, and hitters were expected to hit just .187 off him. This landed him in the 98th and 96th percentiles, respectively, elite numbers, despite it being a down year.
Doval is also impressive in Spring training. Six innings with one earned run is good, but he looks more comfortable on the mound. He’s also changed his walk-on song to the much-loved ‘El Hijo Desobediente’. When asked why, he had the answer all Giants fans wanted to hear: “Because I want to be the 2023 version”.
Main Photo Credits: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images
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