For absolutely no reason at all, here are some Roki Sasaki highlights and scouting info

The 23-year old is taking pitches from teams at the moment and expects to make his decision in the next 3-4 weeks.

When I started writing this post a couple of hours ago, I sensed that there was something in the air regarding the San Francisco Giants and the baseball industry’s pursuit of global phenom pitcher Roki Sasaki, and remarkably, within the last hour, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has validated this weird feeling of mine with a Christmas miracle of sorts in her latest for the online edition of the paper:

It’s an article that’s mostly speculation and largely negative about the team’s odds to land the potential superstar righty; but, as Slusser notes, “Buster Posey, the franchise icon and newly installed top baseball executive, also made explicit San Francisco’s interest in Japanese starter Roki Sasaki during the Winter Meetings, and the Giants are believed to have met last week with Sasaki and agent Joel Wolf in Southern California.”

This might be the actual written confirmation to follow the social media image of Buster Posey seen at LAX last week that the Giants are in active talks with Sasaki’s camp, and why it’s more obvious he was in LA to deal with them versus Boras is buttressed by Newsweek reporting about the Rangers’ involvement today which contained this sentence:

The New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs were all reported to have met with Sasaki and his representatives last week in Southern California.

If Buster wanted to deal with Boras Corp. directly then he’d have flown to John Wayne Airport directly. Wasserman Media Group (representing Sasaki) are right over there by UCLA, just up the 405 from LAX.

So, let’s just accept that all this smoke indicates there’s a fire. The Giants are after Sasaki. Do they have a good chance of landing him? Let’s consider that in a moment.

First, let me fill your mind stocking with some precious little gems like his repertoire and accomplishments. As incredible as it would have been to have landed 25-year old Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason, 23-year old Sasaki would be even more exciting.

Just to demonstrate how young Sasaki is: he was 6’2” and 187 pounds when he signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines in 2019. As of this post, the team’s 2024 roster page lists him at 192 centimeters (6’3.6” — basically 6’4”) and 92 kilograms (203 pounds). He might just be finishing off his physical maturity — growing into his body — and that means his performance ceiling is an open question. Already, though, that ceiling is astounding.

Jonathan Mayo for MLB.com kicks off this survey of an amazing global prospect. At the beginning of the month he wrote:

The 6-foot-2 [ahem, 6-foot-3] Sasaki is a future frontline starter with the potential to have three plus power pitches. He can run his fastball up to 102 mph, a four-seamer that averaged almost 99 mph in 2023, an average that did dip to 96.8 mph in 2024. He complements the heater with an absolutely filthy splitter (88.2 mph avg in 2024) that generated a whiff rate north of 57 percent this past season. He kills spin with it, and it falls off the table.

He also has a slider that generated a 40.7% whiff rate in 2024.

Here’s a look at that fastball-splitter combo, though:

And here they are in action in last year’s World Baseball Classic:

Back in 2022, R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports wrote up a scouting report on Sasaki after the phenom pitched a 19-strikeout perfect game. Here, Anderson channels Brian Sabean to describe Sasaki’s fastball:

5. Are there any MLB comparisons for Sasaki’s fastball?

In a word, no. According to data obtained by CBS Sports from Sunday’s start, Sasaki’s fastball averaged better than 99.5 mph and featured 19.8 inches of induced vertical break and 15.4 inches of horizontal break. That’s an elite, unmatched combination.

For context, consider New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

Cole’s fastball might be the best in the majors. Last year, it averaged 97.7 mph and featured 17.9 inches of induced vertical break and 11.9 inches of horizontal break. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings thrown last season, Cole’s heater ranked in the 99th percentile in velocity; the 80th in induced vertical break; and the 95th in horizontal break. It’s a fantastic pitch, and even it can’t match Sasaki’s numbers across the board.

Now, Anderson allows that the differences between the MLB and NPB’s baseballs has something to do with this remarkable difference, but that’s not really that much of a concern. In 2022, Sasaki was 20 years old.

Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions compiled a scouting report of Sasaki this past November, noting,

Sasaki’s arsenal includes a high-velocity, two-plane fastball, and a devastating splitter, both of which have tormented NPB hitters for years. He’s recently increased the use of his slider, turning it into a reliable weapon against both righties and lefties.

Sasaki is a control-over-command pitcher, but when he’s dialed in he can spot his fastball on the edges of the zone.

Scouts give his four-seamer a 70-grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (it was 80 in 2023), his splitter (or forkball) an 80, and his slider a 55 with potential 60-grade future value.

Now, that fastball change has “been a topic of conversation for most of the year.” Not only was his velocity up and down throughout 2024, he suffered a pair of injuries that, in total, cost him about two and a half months of the season. That’s remarkable and could be a legitimate cause for concern.

On the other hand, given how young he is, it suggests that he’s malleable from a coaching perspective. Get him involved in the Giants’ pitching lab and maybe this issue gets ironed out — or maybe this is now his capacity in his filled-out body. Tew also notes that Sasaki appears to have adjusted his pitching mechanics in 2024 versus 2023, adding “over 6 inches of extension to his delivery.”

[…] he might have kicked up his arm angle just a tiny bit which is not as clearcut on video but can be seen. There’s possibly a slight overextension in his stride that played a role in his downtick in velocity.

There’s a sweet spot in terms of mechanics for Sasaki, and an MLB team will try to find the bullseye.

Now, if you read any of that and jump to the conclusion “Bust!” then I strongly urge you to reconsider. As Mayo reminds us, he “has the chance to be perhaps the greatest pitcher ever to come from Nippon Professional Baseball and pitch for a Major League Baseball team.”

Tew adds, “Not many hitters in NPB squared up Sasaki’s fastball at any point in his career. He’s allowed a total of 6 home runs with it in the last three seasons, and just 2 all last season. Even with the dead balls in Japan, that’s impressive. Compare that to the 26 homers surrendered on fastballs by Shota Imanaga in his last two seasons in Japan.”

Sasaki’s 4 NPB seasons look like this:

W-L: 29-15
ERA: 2.02
IP: 394.2
K: 505
BB: 88
HRA: 15
WHIP: 0.894

Now, maybe you’re getting a little tired of hearing offseason after offseason that “there’s never been a player like this to come along and the Giants should be all over him,” because who wants to keep getting their hopes up? I’d generally agree, and back to Susan Slusser’s article which downplays the Giants’ chances (she’s much more focused on the pursuit of Corbin Burnes), it certainly seems like the team is closer to going through the motions than acting like they’re on Sasaki’s shortlist.

But!

I think Buster Posey has a compelling case to make Sasaki. Yes, it’s very likely Sasaki simply joins Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles to form a super rotation of Japanese stars. It’s plausible and probable that the Padres and Yu Darvish have a great chance, too — particularly if, as Slusser notes, he “might prefer a small- or medium-market team” — but the Giants are far from dead on arrival — and not just because he wouldn’t be a budget buster (he is technically an international amateur subject to that pool of money rather than standard free agency). Here’s why:

It’s a very straightforward pitch. The best hitters in baseball are not on the San Francisco Giants. They’re on literally every other team. Sasaki would have the opportunity to dominate the best of the best in every single start. Buster Posey could credibly “aww shucks” his way around being the ostensible face of the team’s championship era with a real simple idea: “I wasn’t the only face of the franchise during all that winning: it was Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum — our pitching.”

It’s somewhere between a longshot and impossible for the Giants to sign Roki Sasaki if only because there are teams that are much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much better, but pulling off a longshot or the impossible starts with believing.

If Buster Posey believes there’s a chance to land him, then the least we can do is feel the same way. Besides, Sasaki’s negotiating window closes on January 23rd. We’re 30 days out from learning if Buster’s latest pitch to a top player was successful. That’s not a long time to hold on to hope.