Everything has changed mailbag, Part 2

More questions, and maybe even more answers.

On Saturday, I fielded a whole bunch of mailbag questions about the San Francisco Giants. There was an overflow, so here we are with some more.

Thanks for the questions, everyone.

Well, at the risk of hedging right out of the gates, I’d say that it’s neither true nor false, since prospect ranking is as much an art as a science … and a highly inexact art and science, at that.

But it is true that most prospect publications have the Giants below average. So rather than refuting that, I’ll just offer a few thoughts that I think are pertinent.

First, something Roger Munter of There R Giants once said stands out to me here. To paraphrase, the top five and the bottom five matter, and not much in between does. The teams at the very top of farm rankings usually have an abundance of exciting, high-ceiling talent that should make any fan excited. The teams at the bottom are usually in fairly dark places. And in between is really just a mess of puzzle pieces that people are trying to figure out … even though those pieces will change and evolve. So while you’d always like to see the Giants rank higher, it’s hardly concerning. And, relatedly, just a few years ago, the Giants were nearly-unanimously seen as a below-average farm system … save for one well-respect prospect site that had them as the second-best farm! So you just never know.

Second, and most importantly: the whole point of ranking prospects and farms is to try to project which young players might eventually be quality Major Leaguers who can help their teams. That exercise becomes a little blurry when quality players graduate, something we’re already starting to see in Baltimore, where they’re all-world farm system is “declining” because those great prospects are becoming great MLB players. All of that is to say that part of why the Giants farm is lacking in rankings is because a good number of young players have exhausted prospect eligibility, and are now doing the exact thing we hope to capture when projecting good systems: helping the team win!

Put another way, if the Giants had gone a more conventional and conservative route, then Patrick Bailey might still be a prospect, and Hayden Birdsong and Marco Luciano certainly would be. Those three would all be top-five Giants prospects, and while they wouldn’t be enough to elevate the Giants to the top tier of farm system rankings, they would certainly drive the organization up the lists. And perhaps more to my overall point, if anyone knew that Bailey would be this good, the Giants would have ranked much higher on prospect lists a few years ago, because star talent is really what drives these lists.

Which brings us to your final question: what will make the Giants farm great again? Farm system rankings value quality of talent over quantity (as they should), so the only real reliable way to improve a system is to add top-end talent. The Giants system is propped up in rankings by Bryce Eldridge right now, and, to return to my earlier points, the system could tumble next year if Eldridge exhausts his eligibility.

The way to rise up the rankings is to add more players in that mold, and there are lots of ways to do that, even if they’re all very hard. Nailing their first-round pick in July’s draft would help, though perhaps not as much as getting luck in the draft lottery. Some reinforcements are likely to come in January when the international signing period begins, as the Giants are fully expected to sign shortstop Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, the consensus top player in the class, and the type of talent who could easily be in top 10 lists sooner rather than later. And developing players like James Tibbs III, Dakota Jordan, Rayner Arias, Walker Martin, and Jhonny Level, so that they go from exciting prospects to star prospects, would go a long ways.

As far as graduations, there are a few players who have earned opportunities going forward but haven’t yet exhausted their eligibility. Most notably, Grant McCray and Mason Black remain prospect-eligible, and it would be fairly shocking if neither player graduated next year, health permitting. I think there’s also a pretty good chance that Wade Meckler joins that group.

But those three all have something in common: while they’re likely to graduate, I don’t think they’re at all locks to leave behind, as you so poetically put it, the Bus Leagues (though it’s worth noting that Meckler will, I think, be out of options after next year [though he was injured enough that he may have gained an extra year]).

There are two players who I feel fairly confident about graduating and becoming MLB regulars next year: Bryce Eldridge and Trevor McDonald. Carson Whisenhunt could join that group, and so could Carson Ragsdale. I would have put Reggie Crawford there if he were healthy. Juan Sánchez, assuming he’s fully healthy, could also jump in there, as could fellow reliever Tyler Myrick.

Honestly, I care less about the position they improve, and more about how much they improve it. The Giants need a big bat. A thumper. A guy who can anchor a lineup. Ideally that would be Juan Soto in left or right field. But assuming they don’t land Soto, I’d throw a whole lot of stuff Toronto’s direction for the chance to play Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base. Willy Adames at shortstop? That could help. Take on Mike Trout’s contract? I’ve heard worse ideas.

If you had to pick a position where an upgrade should be targeted, I think it’s pretty clearly shortstop, where the Giants really don’t have anyone in the pipeline unless they keep Tyler Fitzgerald there, and I think it’s clear that Fitzgerald should either be a roving utility player or the starting second baseman. But I’d rather they just target a big bat regardless of position, as long as that bat isn’t Pete Alonso’s.

I also think that, for their many options, another top-line starter is needed. Ideally Blake Snell, it probably goes without saying. It would be foolish for them to assume that Logan Webb, the hopes of a healthy Robbie Ray, the dreams of a larger-workload Jordan Hicks, and a patchwork quilt of exciting but unproven youngsters is enough to get the job done.

A chance, definitely, though probably not a very good one. David Bell has been pretty open about wanting to keep managing, and he’s respected enough that I expect him to get that shot somewhere. But if he’s open to a different role, I think there is no doubt the Giants would be all over that.

Two things here. First, until Spring Training arrives on our doorstep, we’re all going to be a little bit in the dark about moves like Meckler playing infield and, to a lesser extent, Luciano playing outfield. Those were moves made during Farhan Zaidi’s tenure, and while the Giants look like they’ll keep most of their development staff in place post-Zaidi, it’s not clear how much strategy will change. So for all we know, Meckler may get to Scottsdale in February and not even have an infield mitt with him.

Second, let’s assume that Posey and his regime are in agreement with Zaidi and his that Meckler should be getting instructional time at second base. I don’t at all think that spells the end for Meckler. I think, just as was the case when the Giants started playing Tyler Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely in the outfield, it’s entirely about versatility. And while I do think Zaidi’s regime sometimes prioritized versatility too much with prospects — instead of letting players just excel at one position — it makes sense for a player like Meckler to start diversifying the mitts in his bag. If you want to view it as an indictment of the player, it’s less about Meckler as an outfielder, and more just about Meckler’s ability to stick as an everyday player. He has tremendous contact skills, but a distinct lack of power that make it hard to envision him being an offensive stud. And despite his speed, he’s never been a notable defensive prospect or base-stealer.

As we’ve seen with Fitzgerald when he’s not on one of his ultra-hot streaks, there’s a lot of value in a league-average bat that can fill in across the diamond. The more positions Meckler can play, the more value he can provide, and the Giants might have given up on the idea of him being an everyday, single-position player.

Well, they will for the GM position. Realistically, Posey isn’t replacing Zaidi … he and the GM he hires are. President of baseball operations under Zaidi was a title that meant handling day-to-day stuff. President of baseball operations under Posey is a title that means overseeing big picture direction, and those day-to-day duties will fall to a GM … who will be vetted and interviewed and experienced.

As for competing in the NL West? By uhh … hiring talented people and signing/developing/trading for talented players.

As for Roki Sasaki, no one knows if the Giants were in Japan watching him whenever you’re referring to. This stuff always goes only partially reported. The Giants have watched Sasaki pitch many, many, many times.

This year? Probably.

Eventually? Inevitably.

Jokes aside, I’d imagine it’s at least something on Posey and Bruce Bochy’s minds. Bochy and Bob Melvin are both entering the final year of their contracts. If the Giants don’t perform well in 2025, well … I’m not saying Bochy would be the favorite to manage in 2026, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened.

I would have to say that I really couldn’t disagree more! The Giants uniforms are utterly perfect and the only changes they should make are to bring back the black ones occasionally.