Everything has changed mailbag, Part 1

Questions! And maybe even answers!

The San Francisco Giants are one week into the offseason, and so far nothing at all has happened. Other than, you know, firing their president of baseball operations and replacing him with one of the best players in franchise history. But other than that!

Seemed like a good time for a mailbag. But with that hot news, I got too many questions for just one mailbag, so check back soon for Part 2!

I would assume some people have, but I’m not aware of any reporters getting quotes from him yet. I would imagine there won’t be many juicy or petty soundbites from Farhan Zaidi; he’s generally one to take the high road, and given that he’s now looking for another job, critiques of his past employer will probably mostly live in private.

But I sure would love to hear his side of things. And I’d guess there’s a little resentment from him, given that he was A) handed a very difficult situation, B) had his job taken by someone quietly coming up behind him, and C) was not referenced at all in Buster Posey’s press conference, aside from a tepid token “thanks for your service” from Greg Johnson.

For the first question, I’m going to assume that Ha-Seong Kim is healthyish. If he needs labrum surgery that puts him on the same timeline as Jung Hoo Lee and Reggie Crawford, then he’s a non-factor, as he won’t be playing in 2025 (and might not even enter free agency). So let’s assume it’s good health news, and he’ll be ready at or near the start of the season.

Under the old regime, Kim vs. Willy Adames was a pretty easy choice. Kim has versatility (he plays three positions to Adames’ one), has amazing bat control (he had a 16.4% strikeout rate in 2024 compared to Adames’ career-best 25.0%), and he’ll probably be about half the price.

It’s less clear what Posey and the New GM To Be Named Later will value. A big bat at shortstop could be exactly what they’re willing to spend massively on. Ultimately, I still think Kim is most likely (again, assuming good health). He’ll be way easier to sign given his close relationship to both Lee and Bob Melvin, and he’ll come at a price point that allows the Giants to still chase the Sotos and Snells of the world. And while I doubt Posey’s regime will value versatility as much as Zaidi’s did, it’s still valuable that Kim can play on either side of second base, which makes team-building a lot easier, since the Giants need both spots figured out eventually.

As for the second question, it hasn’t been a secret that Zaidi was extremely enamored with control of the strike zone, for pitchers and especially for hitters. The player who really stands out as likely to be less valued by Posey than by Zaidi is Wade Meckler, a bat control specialist who is lacking in nearly every other area of the game. It’s possible that the all-or-nothing approaches of players like Grant McCray and Jerar Encarnación also will be less valued, though most of baseball values that approach.

At the risk of being too defensive of Zaidi, I feel compelled to note that my answer to this question would have been dramatically different when he got hired than when he got fired. Prior to the 2019 season, the Giants were a team saddled with bad contracts and aging veterans, with barely any young building blocks in the Majors.

In 2018 — the last pre-Zaidi season — the Giants won 73 games and had a run differential of -96. In 2024 — the last Zaidi season — the Giants won 80 games and had a run differential of -6.

But here’s the real difference.

In 2018, the Giants used 14 players in their age 26 or younger season. Those 14: Abiatal Avelino, Ryder Jones, Chris Shaw, Steven Duggar, Reyes Moronta, Tyler Beede, Andrew Suárez, Miguel Gómez, Aramis Garcia, Austin Slater, Alen Hanson, Steven Okert, D.J. Snelten, and Dereck Rodríguez.

In 2024, the Giants used 23 players in their age 26 or younger season. Those 23: Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, Trevor McDonald, Grant McCray, Randy Rodríguez, Mason Black, Heliot Ramos, Kai-Wei Teng, Raymond Burgos, Landen Roupp, Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee, Brett Wisely, Patrick Bailey, Keaton Winn, Nick Avila, Erik Miller, Camilo Doval, Blake Sabol, Jerar Encarnación, and Tyler Fitzgerald.

Those 14 youngsters from 2018? They would go on to contribute a combined 5.9 fWAR over he rest of their Giants careers, almost all of which came from Slater (plus one good season from Duggar). Patrick Bailey (4.3) was worth nearly that this year alone. And the best season from those 14? Slater’s 2.1 fWAR in 2022 … a mark that Bailey, Ramos, and Fitzgerald all surpassed this season.

It’s not all roses and cold beer, of course. The Giants are still in search of quality depth and, most importantly, top-end talent. But Posey is inheriting a roster with all sorts of young, cost-controlled talent, a few established stars in Logan Webb and Matt Chapman, and likely no contracts that they’ll be wishing they could get off of. Unlike in 2019, when ownership tasked Zaidi with the brutal job of retooling without rebuilding, the roster doesn’t need any demolition. It just needs … well … some additions.

It’s a great question, and hopefully the answer is that he’ll, at some level, defer to the rest of the front office who might be able to view things more objectively. But Posey, for all his mild-mannered demeanor, is a ruthless competitor (which should be obvious by the fact that he was seemingly plotting to take his boss’s job for some time now).

I’m not particularly worried about his ability to remove sentiment and make the tough calls. But, given the trajectory of his career, I’d assume he’ll be a little lenient towards proven veterans who are going thruogh some struggles.

It’s definitely possible, but it won’t be predetermined. AAA has stymied better and more experienced prospects than Bryce Eldridge. The Giants were wildly aggressive with promoting prospects in the final two years of Zaidi’s regime, and my suspicion — which I realize isn’t exactly earth-shattering — is that Zaidi felt a lot of pressure to try to save his job, and that factored into some of those decisions.

That sort of aggression bordering on desperation certainly won’t be the case with the new regime. So we can safely assume that Eldridge will only debut when the team thinks he’s ready. But when he’s ready? There’s simply no reason to wait. But if he doesn’t reach that point in 2025, the team isn’t going to force it.

When Zaidi was still in charge, he and Melvin were very clear that they still viewed Jordan Hicks as a starter, and that he would resume that role at the start of the 2025 season. But do Posey and the not-yet-hired new GM feel similarly?

I have no idea. On the one hand, Hicks looked so good before hitting a wall in 2024 that the Giants would be justified in still betting on him in a starting role. On the other hand, with Webb, Robbie Ray, Harrison, Birdsong, Roupp, Black, Winn, Beck, and presumably a free agent signing (hopefully Blake Snell), you can certainly make a strong case that Hicks is needed more in the bullpen than in the rotation.

Part 2 coming soon!