The Worldwide Leader queried 18 MLB excutives and insiders, and a plurality thought Snell was heading back to the Bay
Blake Snell should have plenty of suitors as he enters free agency after a stellar scond half of the 2024 season. Of course, he should have had plenty of suitors after winning his second Cy Young award in 2023, and he didn’t sign with the San Francisco Giants until 10 days before Opening Day.
So perhaps that’s why an ESPN survey of “18 MLB team executives and baseball insiders” chose the Giants as the likeliest team to sign Snell this winter. Seven voters went with the Giants, three more than chose the Philadelphia Phillies, who already have starters Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker under contract for a combined $84.5 million next season. The Toronto Blue Jays got two votes, while the Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, and New York Mets each got one vote.
One voter’s reasoning was that, “It clicked for him on the West Coast,” where Snell also enjoyed success as a member of the San Diego Padres. Snell struggled initially with the Giants, probably not helped by signing so close to the start of the season. But in the second half, Snell was 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA, racking up 103 strikeouts in 68.1 innings and throwing a no-hitter.
There’s some concerns about Snell’s durability, as he turns 32 on December 4th and has maxed out at 180 innings in a season, the number he hit in both his Cy Young seasons in 2018 and 2023. Before his no-hitter, Snell had never thrown a full eight innings in a start, much less nine.
Why would he want to stay with the Giants? There’s the money and security of a long-term deal, plus the comfort of sticking with his manager for the past three years, Bob Melvin. Snell gets the benefit of playing with baseball’s best defensive third baseman, Matt Chapman, a left-handed pitcher’s best friend. For their part, the Giants won’t have to sacrifice a draft pick or bonus poll money to sign him, unlike most of the other premium starters on the market. Also apparently it has clicked for Snell on the West Coast.
The case against Snell coming back? The Giants want to get under the Competitive Balance Tax, and a long-term deal for Snell figures to be pricey. They might be prioritizing other free agents like Juan Soto (who isn’t coming to SF), Willy Adames (probably not coming) or Ha-Seong Kim (more likely, as he’s Friend Of Grandson Of The Wind). Snell might want to play for a team that’s slightly better than the Giants.
But if some of these insiders actually do have inside information, it’s a positive sign for Snell’s return. As long as Jon Heyman or Bob Nightengale don’t tweet that they think Snell is coming back, it’s safe to be optimistic that the left-hander could ge a Giant again. For now.