Can Jordan Hicks help power the Giants’ rotation through April’s question marks?

The Giants should have a great rotation this season, but not even the team expects that to happen in April. Unless…

We all know the San Francisco Giants’ impressive offseason has set them up to eventually have three Cy Young-caliber pitchers in the rotation (Webb, Snell, Ray), but “eventually” carries a lot of uncertainty in both timeline and effectiveness. After Logan Webb, what does the rotation look like, and can it be effective until Blake Snell finishes his Spring Training and Robbie Ray completes rehab from Tommy John surgery?

Last season, Logan Webb didn’t quite storm out of the gate (4.10 ERA in 37.1 IP) and the back of the rotation was unreliable while the bullpen was bad, so it was up to Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani to provide quality innings — and they delivered (2.56 ERA in 63.1 IP). This season, Cobb — despite rehabbing from hip surgery on a timeline akin to Wolverine’s healing factor — will miss at least the first couple of rotation turns while DeSclafani is no longer on the team. That leaves rookie Kyle Harrison and convert Jordan Hicks as quality innings guys.

Let’s start with Jordan Hicks, because he throws 97-100 mph and his journey from reliever to starter might be the epic quest the Giants rotation needs to hit the ground running in 2024. If you watched his final Spring Training start this past Monday night — 5 IP 0 H 10 K — then you got a world building prologue.

Here’s Pitching Ninja’s gif-tage of 7 straight Ks recorded by Hicks in innings 3 through 5:

He finished the Cactus League with 28 K in 17 IP (8 BB, 5 ER) and if you don’t want to buy in based on spring numbers, fair enough. But consider all this: he flashed a lot more command than he had as a reliever, the velocity didn’t diminish, and Bob Melvin & Bryan Price just did a reliever-to-starter conversion last season with the Padres in Seth Lugo.

It’s not a perfect comp, of course, because Lugo had been a starter with the Mets before they converted him to reliever; however, Hicks was a starter in the minors the Cardinals gave him 8 starts in the bigs in 2022. The always interesting Eno Sarris had this to say back in January after the Giants signed him and announced him as a starter:

Brian Bannister and Andrew Bailey might’ve left the building, but if you’ve been a fan of the franchise for any length of time then you know that the team — in combination with Oracle Park — has a solid track record with pitchers. If Hicks works out immediately, it will feel both like a validation of history and of the current front office’s scouting acumen.

He might struggle, too, but even then, he’s just as likely to show flashes of what he can do like he did against the A’s. Sure, the first 15 games the Giants play (roughly his first 3 starts) will be against not the A’s, but you don’t need to squint to see the upside.

Hicks gives the opposition a different look from the Giants’ other rotation arms, too: overpowering velocity on a heavy sinker paired with a dynamic sweeper and interesting splitter. He’s like a past (splitter), present (sinker), and future (sweeper) of major league pitching all in one package. This is the pitching story to watch in the first month.

But! Kyle Harrison is just getting started. The rookie lefty has been named the #2 starter to kick off the season and the team has been eager to put pressure on him to see if he rises to the many challenges that come with facing major league hitters. His ascent isn’t guaranteed, but it is expected — just not right away.

Walks were still a problem for him in the spring and combined with his not Jordan Hicks-level velocity, you can see the problem of needing to deceive and locate to be dominant. You don’t have to squint to see his upside, but don’t hold your breath when it comes to him figuring it out. He’ll get plenty of runway, but it still could be a while before we see the team’s #1 prospect make the leap.

The Giants have, either by intention or luck, managed to create some mentorship situations between veterans and younger players: Alex Cobb with Logan Webb, Wilmer Flores with Thairo Estrada, and now perhaps Robbie Ray with Kyle Harrison. In all three of these pairings, the players have similar skill sets/arsenals. I once compared Blake Snell to Robbie Ray, but the Kyle Harrison-Robbie Ray comp works better: Ray, predominantly a 4-seam fastball (93-95 mph) & slider guy, and Harrison, a 4-seam fastball (93-96 mph) & slurve guy. Maybe Ray can sprinkle some Cy Young dust on Harrison?

Of course, talent matters most, and it’s clear the Giants have talent up and down their staff, healthy or injured. Relationships and experience could be unquantifiable factors that push achievement. In other words, players being able to relate to each other — encouraged to, even — might actually help the talent reach the best possible projections.

It says a lot to me that Alex Cobb is fighting so hard to make it back on the field ASAP. That extra effort gets noticed by veterans and rookies alike. Cobb is down there rehabbing in Arizona — you don’t think he’s pushing Keaton Winn, who’s there with him, too? He’s done it before. Blake Snell credits Cobb with helping him become a major leaguer:

He raised me, taught me how to be a pro. […] He helped build me into the player I am, the man I am.

He’s an inspiration, sure, but his actions could just by example act as a push or a nudge for players to maintain their focus whether it’s rehab or Spring Training. Cobb’s not instilling player passion, he’s reinforcing it. There are a lot of passionate pitchers on this team.

The Giants have loved Kyle Harrison’s doggedness and if you listen to Logan Webb for any length of time you see and hear that same tenacity. Tom Murphy talked up Jordan Hicks’ intensity, too:

The first thing I think you can spot out with Jordan is his attitude […] You’re getting a closer out there for six innings, or seven innings — wherever he ends up going this year.

Are the Giants aggregating personality types? Is that their secret sauce? Probably not, but acquiring talented pitchers who might have an obsession with their craft seems like a terrific foundation for a great pitching staff.

There were many questions about the rotation heading into the offseason. It took patience (Snell) and courage (Ray, Hicks), but the Giants answered them all. They did this because they already had Logan Webb, Harrison, Winn, Tristan Beck, Mason Black, and a positive prognosis on Cobb. That’s a projectable floor of a not terrible staff. In their mind, they weren’t trying to go from bad to good but from good to great and gave themselves pitching depth with high upside potential.

The 30,000-foot view of the pitching plan seems pretty obvious in that respect. Two months ago, I worried about how the team would cover its innings, but I’m much less concerned now. Jordan Hicks might not have the stamina to make it through the entire season, so there’s Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. Alex Cobb is a reliable injury guy, so even when he returns it’s not reasonable to expect he stays healthy for a full season. Winn, Beck, and Mason Black could step up in that case. If Harrison tires out, Robbie Ray will arrive later on. They’ve given themselves some insurance after Logan Webb and Blake Snell.

They won’t start the year with Snell, Cobb, Ray, Winn, or Beck, but none of those eventual arrivals will be a white knight situation. Especially Blake Snell’s. He won’t need to save the day; he’ll be there to put the word out that the Giants have the best rotation in Baseball. At least… that’s the plan.

With Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks backing up Logan Webb, and Alex Cobb and Keaton Winn waiting in the wings, things seem to be going according to plan.