Bryce Eldridge tops Baseball Prospectus list of SF Giants prospects

The Giants system has some intriguing talent that’s mostly teenagers, but those evaluators say the system ‘gets shallow very quickly’

A lot of baseball websites produce prospect rankings. But only one actually has “prospect” hidden in their name, so you know they’re trustworthy.

It’s not a big surprise that Bryce Eldridge topped the BP rankings of San Francisco Giants prospects after a season where the 20-year-old first baseman advanced from Low-A ball to the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats. He capped it off by playing in the Arizona Fall League, which is quite a tour of the minor league landscape. BP considers Eldridge the Giants’ best hitting prospect “since at least” Brandon Belt, with 30-40 home run potential and they love his remarkably full beard for a man just out of his teens. Eldridge was the No. 16 pick in the 2023 draft, which is a theme in these rankings.

BP has this year’s top pick, outfielder James Tibbs III, as the team’s No. 2 prospect, who they call a “sweet-swinging corner outfielder.” Third is left-handed pitcher Carson Whisehunt, a second-round pick from 2022 and a guy who struggled with his command last season in Triple-A. Fourth is 2024 pick Dakota Jordan, who has great power, speed, and a throwing arm who also strikes out all the time. At No. 5, they have 18-year-old outfielder Rayner Arias, a big-money ($2.7 million) signing from Jan, 2020 out of the Dominican Republic. He’s an exciting prospect who has had two straight minor-league seasons cut short by breaking the same wrist.

It’s hard to read this and think their prospect experts are thrilled by this farm system. Even the top prospects seem to have huge holes or injury histories. It also seems like BP prefers players who haven’t been in the Giants system very long. Maybe that’s because truly top-tier talent will move through the minors quickly, but it also feels like they don’t necessarily trust the Giants’ development.

Granted, there’s also a hole at the top of these rankings simply because so many young Giants reached the big leagues and are no longer officially prospects. BP’s list from January had Marco Luciano, Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Hayen Birdsong, and Grant McCray in the top 10, and they all graduated to the majors. On their list of best talents 25-and-under, Eldridge is still the headliner, but Birdsong, Harrison, and Patrick Bailey are 2-4, along with Heliot Ramos (6), McCray (8) and Luis Matos (10).

Rounding out the top ten is Joe Whitman, the lefty chosen with the Carlos Rodon compensation pick, power-hitting 17-year-old infielder Jhonny Level (great name), 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Lisbel Diaz, defensive whiz shortstop Aeverson Arteaga, and lefty Reggie Crawford, who will miss next season after having surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder.

Only Eldridge and Whisenhunt are likely to reach the majors next season. The Prospectus folks have Wade Meckler at No. 14, which seems negative, but then they compare him to Gregor Blanco, which is a very high compliment in our opinion. They’re also bullish on high-A third baseman Sabin Ceballos, the prize of the Jorge Soler-Luke Jackson salary dump.

What does this mean for the new Buster Posey regime? It means that aside from Eldridge, and perhaps a late-season Whisenhunt callup, the Giants of the future were on the major league roster already last season. Eldrige’s presence in Triple-A and huge potential should affect the team’s free agent strategy, and their arbitration decision on incumbent first-sacker LaMonte Wade, Jr.

As for the pitchers, it’s hard to imagine that the Giants would go into next season with the same attitude towards starting pitching, relying on two starters, a converted reliever on an innings limit, and then a combination of bullpen games and prayer. Still, having Whisenhunt and Mason Black around might lead the Giants to choose other priorities ahead of bringing back Blake Snell.

Overall, this is a farm system in transition. The Giants will know more what they have when some prospects get healthy, some prospects get exposed to higher minor league levels, and others start shaving. But not Bryce Eldridge. His bat might not be quite ready for the major leagues, but his beard already is.