Technically it’s only 77.9, as the numbers experts don’t like the Giants’ outfield, or their depth, or their lack of offseason activity.
The people at Baseball Prospectus deliver some of the most savvy, numbers-based analysis of major league baseball teams. When it comes to the 2025 San Francisco Giants, they’re not impressed.
In their season preview (paywalled), the team at BP has the Giants pegged for 77.9 wins. For you arts majors reading this, this also means they’re expecting roughly 84 losses. That’s not a winning season. Their overall conclusion is a simple one: The Giants weren’t great last year, and they didn’t make many moves in the offseason to improve.
Who does BP like? Patrick Bailey, who they have as the most valuable position player, worth 3.6 wins, mainly due to defense. They’re optimistic about Bailey’s offense, mainly because he’s hit so well through June, and so miserably after July in his brief career — if that balances out even slightly for late in the season, he could become an offensive asset, too.
The preview likes Matt Chapman and new signing Willy Adames, who are almost mirror images in their value. Chapman is an outstanding defender whose offense ranges from OK to good. Adames is a consistently strong hitter whose defense might be slipping. BP also likes Tyler Fitzgerald to remain a positive, and Jung Ho Lee to provide solid defense in his return.
The biggest issue? Depth. Last year, Lee’s injury led to five months of “miserable center field defense” as good corner outfielders/mediocre center fielders Heliot Ramos and Mike Yazstremski filled in, along with an overmatched Luis Matos. The team didn’t bring in anyone new during the winter, and backup option Grant McCray struck out in over 43% of his plate appearances.
When the Giants face left-handed pitching, Yaz and LaMonte Wade, Jr. likely need platoon partners, and the group of Wilmer Flores, Jerar Encarnacion, and Matos isn’t striking fear in the hearts of other teams.
The team has a similar depth issue with their infield. If Chapman, Adames, or Fitzgerald miss extended time, there’s a huge dropoff to Brett Wisely and/or Casey Schmitt, with the latter not a great glove option at short.
The team does have pitching depth, with the only concern being Erik Miller as the lone left-handed reliever, but they can always use some of their many starting pitching options in long relief. BP’s “PECOTA” projection season has Giants closer Ryan Walker as one of the 15 best relievers in baseball, and they marvel at the team’s surplus of minor-league pitchers named Carson.
But the projection is not fond of the team’s new No. 2 starter. Based on his struggles last season, the slowing of his fastball, and right-handers’ newfound ability to crush his high outside fastball, they’re quite pessimistic of the team’s $15 million 42-year-old.
All this points to more of the same with the Giants as they continue to float around the .500 mark. Adames is a great addition who plugs their biggest positional hole, but it’s probably balanced out by losing Blake Snell to the Los Angeles Dodgers. In general, the Giants have some obvious weaknesses and filled very few of them. Signing a famous guy like Verlander and an expensive guy like Adames hasn’t fooled the projection systems, and it likely won’t convince the fans either.
In summary, the SF Giants are a starting pitcher, a reliable right-handed outfielder, a backup center fielder, and a backup shortstop short of being a consistently winning team. The good news is that these don’t seem like impossible additions. The bad news is the team doesn’t seem interested in spending money to fix those holes any time soon.