It was 2004, the last time a Giants player hit 30 home runs, three rings, and 20 seasons later, Oracle Park has yet to see the same achievement. The great Barry Bonds hit 45 homers that year, his 12th season in a row hitting over 30 in San Francisco. That was a long time ago; I was approaching my first birthday, and there were still two teams in Canada. Now, another batch of sluggers looks to achieve this great feat. Even if Bonds’s 1.421 OPS is out of the picture…
Experienced Contenders
The Giants new shortstop Willy Adames perhaps has the best chance to take this crown. More known for his bat, Adames has had two 30-home-run seasons in the past three years. The catch, though, is that American Family Field is one of the easiest grounds to do so. 14% more home runs are hit there than average. Plus, Oracle Park comes in at 22% below average. Remember, though, as a right-handed hitter, he will have it easier than lefties. 31 of his 32 home runs last year would’ve remained home runs if hit in Oracle Park. Projection systems guess he’ll hit between 23 and 28, but all it takes is a big series at Coors Field, and Adames will be in with a chance.
Matt Chapman perhaps outperformed expectations with the bat last year, particularly by hitting 27 home runs. Being another righty, Chapman took advantage of the shorter left field. A favorite of newer analytics, Chapman’s bat speed and exit velocities have begun to be appreciated. He proved his 2023 in Toronto was just a down year and looks to be the leader of this offense again. Projection systems have him between 23-30, with just one system having him breaking the long-standing curse.
New Blood
As a prospect, Heliot Ramos was very excited about his natural power. In 2024, he finally showed it in the big leagues, hitting 22 home runs. This doesn’t even do his season justice; he did so in just 122 games due to not being on the opening-day roster. Furthermore, in half of the grounds, that 22 would’ve been a minimum of 25. This is an extraordinary achievement for a player with just 82 unsuccessful PAs before 2024. This is perhaps why it feels like he’s been hard done by when it comes to projections. Multiple projections have him hitting just 18 homes, with the highest being 24. Projection systems always are harsh on breakouts like Ramos, but if he can build on last year’s success, he will certainly hit 30 sooner rather than later.
Tyler Fitzgerald is almost definitely the rouge shout on this list, but after last year’s showing, it would not be nice not to mention his power. 15 home runs for a utility infielder is impressive, particularly as a rookie. What’s most impressive about Fitzgerald’s bat is his ability to pull the ball in the air. A skill easier said than done; it perhaps is a big reason why Fitzgerald outperformed his expected statistics by so much. In addition to his 100th percentile speed of course. It is fair to expect some regression from Fitzgerald, but if he can cut his strikeouts down and continue lifting the ball to the left, why can’t he hit 30 home runs?
If Not This Year, Then What
I couldn’t write a piece about home runs and not mention top prospect Bryce Eldridge. He has the potential to make 30 home runs look like a bad year, even as a lefty. His 70-grade potential power is the highest of any prospect, and at six-foot-seven, it’s easy to see how. He doesn’t quite have Bonds ability to hit for average, but many expect him to be able to hit league average at a minimum. A skill is crucial to reach such a tough milestone.
He’s far from the only slugger, particularly with the Giants impressive international talent. Rayner Arias, in particular, is projected to be a future slugger. Injuries have limited his playtime in the first two years. Still, his impressive bat and baseball IQ are expected to quickly carry him through the levels, particularly if he can stay healthy.
At the end of the day 30 home run seasons are a novelty. The Giants won three rings without one and have seen impressive bats like Buster Posey play hall-of-fame careers without one. That being said, it nicely sums up the Giants struggles the last few years offensively. A 97 wRC+ as a team last year was a big improvement, and only really happened thanks to two surprises in Ramos and Fitzgerald. More than anything else though, who doesn’t want to hear more Duane Kuiper home run calls?
Main Photo Credits: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
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