It’s tough to make predictions a year out, but that’s not stopping people with article quotas from revving their engines.
Over the past week, two prominent publications have posted articles about the possibility of the San Francisco Giants pursuing upcoming free agent first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the 2025-2026 offseason. With all due respect to Willy Adames, do the Giants have it in them to go after another top of the market bat after years of disappointment?
I have my doubts, and that’s before I get into the Bryce Eldridge of it all. The team’s best prospect — one of the best prospects in the sport — is penciled in as a future first baseman, if all goes well. Beyond that, and more importantly, they have financial limitations which compel them to find surplus value wherever they can. Guerrero Jr. won’t be cheap and they’ve already got a lot of money committed on the books the next few years if the intention is to keep the payroll in the $150-$180 million range, and there’s no reason to anticipate it moving out of that window, since it has largely been the norm.
On the flip side, the team has not had much success since 2016 and Guerrero would be coming from a similarly malaise-y situation in Toronto. The Giants, despite having Buster Posey, Willy Adames, and his former teammate, Matt Chapman (whom I speculated could be helpful in a recruiting effort) as front men might not have the juice to convince him to make the move — and that’s assuming the money’s right.
I’m also a big believer that the Giants will never sign a top of the market free agent. The Willy Adames contract comes juuuuust shy of proving me wrong, of course, but like the Carlos Correa deal, the Giants basically have to Tier 1 Player money to land Tier 2 guys. I’ve retired the “Of course the Giants aren’t going to sign Player X” series for this reason; but, this is coming up because “the Giants fail to land another big fish” is a story premise that still drives clicks. To wit:
Last week, Jim Bowden ranked the Giants 6th in a list of teams that should be gearing up to pursue this near-certain free agent. In The Athletic he wrote in part (sub required):
Although the Giants’ best prospect is first baseman Bryce Eldridge, some scouts believe he could be adequate in left field, which makes San Francisco a more realistic landing spot for Guerrero in theory.
Yesterday, Susan Slusser wrote up an analysis in the San Francisco Chronicle of a post for Bookies.com — folks, we are truly through the looking glass here on legalized gambling — that had the Giants leading all teams, odds-wise, with a 25% chance of landing Vladito. Here opening line encapsulated this nonsense perfectly:
Their reputation for pursuing the biggest names each winter has a major gambling site already eyeing the San Francisco Giants for next year’s projected top free agent.
So, at least from a news perspective, the Giants are expected to be losers in free agency. That’s not really news, mind you, but Bowden’s piece was at least inspired by the reporting that Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays had failed to come to an agreement on an extension before the start of Spring Training.
In that way, this situation might parallel what happened between Aaron Judge and the Yankees before the start of the 2022 season. Would the Giants be sleepwalking into another stalking horse situation?
From a baseball standpoint, of course the Giants could use Guerrero Jr. It would be foolish to dismiss the prowess of a 26-year old (27 next season) who has been the 13th-best hitter in the sport since his debut in 2019. His peers over that timespan:
- Aaron Judge, 180 wRC+
- Yordan Alvarez, 166
- Mike Trout, 165
- Juan Soto, 160
- Shohei Ohtani, 153
- Freddie Freeman, 149
- Bryce Harper, 145
- Mookie Betts, 144
- Kyle Tucker, 142
- Ronald Acuna Jr., 141
- Gunnar Henderson, 139
- Fernando Tatis, Jr., 138
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 137
- Corey Seager, 137
- Jose Altuve, 136
Elite company for an elite hitter. One could reasonably expect maybe 4 more years of this type of production, and that’s significant. Significant enough to pay $36 million+ a year?
I doubt it. Susan Slusser’s piece stressed the cost and argued that Bryce Eldridge plus re-signing LaMonte Wade Jr. would be sufficient. I look to the loss of a draft pick and some international bonus pool money as another factor. Now, because the Giants won’t be exceeding this year’s Competitive Balance Tax threshold ($241 million in 2025), the penalty would be less severe than what they faced this year, but it would still matter for a tender team still figuring how far along it is in its rebuild. From MLB.com:
If a team does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT salary threshold in the previous season, it will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If one of these teams signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest pick.
I’m sure the knock on Guerrero Jr. is that he’s all bat, no glove. He won a Gold Glove in 2022 as a first baseman, but yeah, since then, he’s been awful (-23 Outs Above Average at first base). LaMonte Wade Jr. hasn’t been that bad and the overall promise of Bryce Eldridge compels us to imagine he’ll play better defense at first, too. Still, hitting a baseball is very hard, and it makes sense to pay a premium for guys who can do it better than most.
The bottom line is that the Giants should always be all in on good players and Vladito is an unquestionably good player. But making a prediction approximately 8 months out from the offseason starting is pretty silly. Still, I’m a blogger, which means I have to be pretty silly sometimes. If I am to make a prediction, I’ll base it on two things:
- The past 20 or so years of the Giants in free agency coupled with their offseason behavior the past few years. They are willing to overpay for the just below the top of the market types but not set a record with the top of the market types.
- The team that offers the most money will land Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Since point 1 precludes the possibility of point 2, I predict the San Francisco Giants will not sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Now, let us never discuss this matter again… unless Matt Chapman says something mysterious and oddly hopeful.