Money talks.
Last year, as a critical offseason was getting underway for the San Francisco Giants, I tried a new bit of offseason content, by looking at the projected contracts for the Giants’ free agent targets. It was a fun and informative article to write, and hopefully a fun and informative article to read.
It was also pretty straightforward, because the Giants offseason plans were the opposite of a secret. They were going to do everything in their power to sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, with the possible exception of if they signed both of those two, they were going to do everything in their power to sign Jung Hoo Lee. Bob Melvin was openly campaigning for Matt Chapman, and a starting pitcher was needed.
The offseason brought some surprises, obviously. I included 12 players in that list of targets, and none of those 12 were named “Jorge Soler” or “Tom Murphy.” But still. We knew what the team wanted to do.
This offseason is a little less clear. The Giants have as many glaring holes on their roster as last year, but the crystal ball is less focused. They’re reportedly in on the consensus top free agent, but you don’t get the sense that they’re committed to making the same run for Juan Soto that they made for Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Aaron Judge. And after that, it’s pretty murky.
But there’s still a lot of value in seeing how the market looks for some of the top players. Buster Posey and Zack Minasian are attempting the unenviable task of increasing wins while decreasing payroll, which means the list of available free agents is only as valuable as the contracts they’ll sign.
So I’ll do what I did last year, and crowdsource the contract predictions for the team’s potential targets. I’m using four trusted publications here, so as to provide a comprehensive view: The Athletic’s Tim Britton, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens, and the MLB Trade Rumors team of Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, and Tim Dierkes.
Contract predictions are fickle. Historically, the market drives prices up beyond what the experts project, though Giants fans certainly know that sometimes things go in the other direction, too. If you want to know the accuracy of predictions, at the bottom of the article I’ve included the predictions from last year’s article, as well as the actual figures they received.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into some fictional money that’s about to become real money. I’m including the average annual value (AAV) of each contract prediction, as well as the age that the player will be on Opening Day, and their projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from Fangraphs’ Steamer projections. I’m not including pitcher Rōki Sasaki, as he is subject to international signing period restrictions, so he can only receive a modest pre-arbitration contract regardless of which teams he signs with.
Now let’s do it.
Tier 1: The Dude
OF Juan Soto (26 years, 6.8 WAR)
The Athletic: 13 years, $611 million ($47M AAV)
ESPN: 13 years, $611 million ($47M AAV)
Fangraphs: 12 years, $576 million ($48M AAV)
MLBTR: 13 years, $600 million ($46.2M AAV)
The favorites to sign Soto — the incumbent New York Yankees, and their neighbor, the New York Mets — will likely be willing to pay these prices, should the market take them there. Which means the Giants will need to pay comfortably in excess of these predictions in order to land Soto.
The Giants can’t offer the roster, ballpark, market, or coast to sway Soto on vibes alone. Their path to his services is to offer more money than anyone else is willing to match, which will book them a press conference in which Soto will tell beat reporters about how San Francisco just felt like home, and how he values the team’s coaching staff.
I’m of the strong belief that the Giants should do it, whatever the cost is. I’m of the equally strong belief that they won’t.
Prove me wrong, Giants.
It’s worth noting that there’s a healthy apprehension with large contracts. Many don’t age very well … fans wanted the Giants to sign Trevor Story and re-sign Kris Bryant, and thank goodness they didn’t. You’re probably even happy that they didn’t sign Carlos Correa, and he’s mostly played up to expectations.
But superduperstars usually are an exception. Judge’s contract looks like an absolute bargain right now. So does Ohtani’s. So does Bryce Harper’s.
Soto is one of the greatest hitters you’ve ever seen, and he’s a full year younger than Tyler Fitzgerald. Don’t worry about the money. He’s worth it, and he’ll keep being worth it, and by the time he’s no longer worth it, Rob Manfred will have changed the rules of baseball so dramatically that you’re not even watching anymore.
Tier 2: Shortstops, which, you know, the Giants really need
Willy Adames (29 years, 3.5 WAR)
The Athletic: 6 years, $150 million ($25M AAV)
ESPN: 7 years, $189 million ($27M AAV)
Fangraphs: 5 years, $145 million ($29M AAV)
MLBTR: 6 years, $160 million ($26.7M AAV)
The Giants need a shortstop, and the case for Adames is as clean and easy as they get: he’s the best shortstop on the market. That’s usually a pretty damn good place to start.
It’s also hard to see the Giants actually signing Adames. Those contracts, while fair, are still pricy for a player who is probably closer to good than great, and a team that’s trying to be fairly conscious of spending. They’re amplified by the fact that he was given the qualifying offer — due to being in the luxury tax last year, the penalty for signing such a player is a second-round draft pick, a fifth-round draft pick, and $1 million in international bonus pool money. And, predictably, the Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be the team that the Giants would need to either outbid or outshine to earn Adames’ services.
That’s a lot working against the Giants, and we haven’t even gotten to the biggest reason why they probably won’t sign Adames. That reason is…
Ha-Seong Kim (29 years, 2.9 WAR)
The Athletic: 2 years, $36 million ($18M AAV)
ESPN: 2 years, $42.1 million ($21.1M AAV)
Fangraphs: 5 years, $100 million ($20M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 year, $12 million ($12M AAV)
You don’t often see contract predictions vary this much. There’s a pretty big difference between a one-year, $12 million deal, and $20 million a year for half a decade. But Kim’s health — he recently had surgery to repair his labrum — has thrown his market into a blender.
Will he really be back near the start of the season, as his agent maintains? Will he be fully healthy and back to his best self when that happens? Does he want long-term stability, or a chance to have a healthy season and re-enter the market next offseason?
No one knows. All we know is this: the Giants have been favorites to sign Kim this winter for more than a year.
Last year it felt pre-determined that Kim would join the Giants this offseason. At the time, the Giants had a major question mark at shortstop, a minor question mark at second base, and it was expected that Chapman would opt out after a year, giving them a major question mark at third base — three positions that Kim can field at a Gold Glove level.
They also had a manager in Melvin who developed a very close relationship with Kim while in San Diego, and had just signed his best friend, Lee. Add in that Kim is a darling in the areas that Farhan Zaidi prioritized — control of the strike zone, contact ability, and positional versatility — and there was virtually no doubt that Kim was San Francisco bound after the 2024 season.
But the switch from Zaidi to Posey made me question if the team still valued Kim so highly. The answer seems to be a very clear “yes.” The promotion of Minasian suggests that the team will still value many of the same player traits as they did during Zaidi’s tenure, and reports have already surfaced about the team’s interest in Kim. The major question mark at third base is alleviated, and the minor question mark at second base is presumably put on ice while Fitzgerald is given a chance, but the major question mark at shortstop has been demoted from a question mark to a fire alarm. The Giants need a shortstop this offseason. Adames is the best one available, but Kim isn’t too far behind in value, even though he’ll likely be significantly far behind in cost.
Tier 3: The big arms
RHP Corbin Burnes (30 years, 4.0 WAR)
The Athletic: 7 years, $217 million ($31M AAV)
ESPN: 7 years, $225 million ($32.1M AAV)
Fangraphs: 7 years, $196 million ($28M AAV)
MLBTR: 7 years, $200 million ($28.6M AAV)
I’m not sure I even should have included Burnes, as I genuinely don’t think he’s a target for the Giants. But he’s the top free agent at one of the team’s top positions of need, so we need to at least take a peak.
But the Giants aren’t going to sign Burnes. We’ve quickly been dispelled of any notion that Posey, even despite his days as a catcher, will value pitchers dramatically differently than Zaidi. Which means there’s no reason at all to think they have any interest in a massive contract for a non-homegrown pitcher in his 30s, unless that pitcher is also an MVP-winning designated hitter.
Burnes will cost a ton of money, and he was given the qualifying offer. His raw stats and underlying statistics are trending in the wrong direction. The Giants are not a Burnes away from where they’re trying to be. Even hearing that they’re in discussions with him would be a shocker.
LHP Blake Snell (32 years, 3.7 WAR)
The Athletic: 4 years, $110 million ($27.5M AAV)
ESPN: 4 years, $124 million ($31M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $105 million ($35M AAV)
MLBTR: 5 years, $160 million ($32M AAV)
I’d be absolutely stoked if the Giants re-signed Snell for three years and $105 million, or for four years and $110 million. I’d be in favor of four years and $124 million. I’d grimace quite a bit at five years and $160 million.
Snell’s contract fascinates me. The general consensus seems to be that he has a good chance of getting the big contract that never came to him last offseason, even though no one can explain why. Most of the analysts have hedged and just given him something in between what he’s been after for two years and what he settled for a year ago.
It seems pretty clear from reports that the Giants aren’t intending to make a strong push to re-sign Snell, but if his contract is more Yusei Kikuchi than it is Corbin Burnes, it would be malpractice to not reunite.
LHP Max Fried (31 years, 3.2 WAR)
The Athletic: 5 years, $140 million ($28M AAV)
ESPN: 6 years, $175 million ($29.2M AAV)
Fangraphs: 5 years, $140 million ($28M AAV)
MLBTR: 6 years, $156 million ($26M AAV)
Fried is a really good pitcher, and he’d be a really good addition on the Giants. I also don’t see any reason why they would be willing to spend this much money on a starting pitcher and not give it to Snell, instead.
Tier 4: Non-Soto outfielders
OF Anthony Santander (30 years, 2.7 WAR)
The Athletic: 5 years, $105 million ($21M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $69 million ($23M AAV)
Fangraphs: 5 years, $100 million ($20M AAV)
MLBTR: 4 years, $80 million ($20M AAV)
OF Teoscar Hernández (32 years, 2.4 WAR)
The Athletic: 3 years, $69 million ($23M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $66 million ($22M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $72 million ($24M AAV)
MLBTR: 3 years, $60 million ($20M AAV)
The Giants could use a boost of power in a big way and, unless they sign Soto or swing a trade, these two are the best ways to get it.
There are a lot of hesitations, though. They both have somewhat ebbing and flowing track records, with defense that could point towards a not-too-distant future as a designated hitter. They both have the qualifying offer attached to them. They’re both likely to get strong offers from playoff teams.
But the Giants likely need an outfielder, and they might need two if they’re really considering trading Mike Yastrzemski.
This is a good way to get one, even if it’s hard to see happening.
Tier 5: Non-ace starting pitchers
RHP Jack Flaherty (29 years, 2.8 WAR)
The Athletic: 4 years, $92 million ($23M AAV)
ESPN: 5 years, $115 million ($23M AAV)
Fangraphs: 4 years, $88 million ($22M AAV)
MLBTR: 5 years, $115 million ($23M AAV)
RHP Shane Bieber (30 years, 1.6 WAR)
The Athletic: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $54 million ($18M AAV)
Fangraphs: 2 years, $36 million ($18M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 year, $12 million ($12M AAV)
LHP Sean Manaea (33 years, 2.1 WAR)
The Athletic: 4 years, $76 million ($19M AAV)
ESPN: 4 years, $86 million ($21.5M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)
MLBTR: 3 years, $60 million ($20M AAV)
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (34 years, 2.9 WAR)
The Athletic: 3 years, $63 million ($21M AAV)
ESPN: 4 years, $76 million ($19M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $51 million ($17M AAV)
MLBTR: 3 years, $60 million ($20M AAV)
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (35 years, 2.8 WAR)
The Athletic: 2 years, $45 million ($22.5M AAV)
ESPN: 2 years, $45 million ($22.5M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $48 million ($16M AAV)
MLBTR: 2 years, $44 million ($22M AAV)
RHP Nick Pivetta (32 years, 2.5 WAR)
The Athletic: 3 years, $48 million ($16M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $63 million ($21M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $42 million ($14M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 years, $21.1 million ($21.1M AAV)
RHP Nick Martinez (34 years, 1.8 WAR)
The Athletic: 3 years, $40 million ($13.3M AAV)
ESPN: 2 years, $40 million ($20M AAV)
Fangraphs: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 year, $21.1 million ($21.1M AAV)
RHP Luis Severino (31 years, 2.0 WAR)
The Athletic: 3 years, $50 million ($16.7M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $58.5 million ($19.5M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $39 million ($13M AAV)
MLBTR: 3 years, $51 million ($17M AAV)
RHP Walker Buehler (30 years, 1.5 WAR)
The Athletic: 2 years, $32 million ($16M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $54 million ($18M AAV)
Fangraphs: 2 years, $30 million ($15M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 year, $15 million ($15M AAV)
There’s not a whole lot of editorializing to do here. These are all good pitchers who have the potential to pitch at an All-Star level, but who you shouldn’t plan on being your first or second starter. They all have varying levels of concern, from injuries, to control issues, to up-and-down track records. They’re all fairly affordable, and if the Giants don’t land Burnes, Snell, or Fried, they need to come away with one of these arms. It likely comes down to who they value relative to the market. Manaea, Martinez, Pivetta, and Severino all have the qualifying offer attached to them.
Tier 6: Veteran first basemen
1B Christian Walker (34 years, 2.6 WAR)
The Athletic: 2 years, $44 million ($22M AAV)
ESPN: 3 years, $57 million ($19M AAV)
Fangraphs: 3 years, $51 million ($17M AAV)
MLBTR: 3 years, $60 million ($20M AAV)
1B Paul Goldschmidt (37 years, 1.7 WAR)
The Athletic: 1 year, $15 million ($15M AAV)
ESPN: 1 year, $18 million ($18M AAV)
Fangraphs: 1 year, $13 million ($13M AAV)
MLBTR: 1 year, $15 million ($15M AAV)
1B Carlos Santana (39 years, 1.1 WAR)
The Athletic: N/A
ESPN: 1 year, $13 million ($13M AAV)
Fangraphs: 1 year, $9 million ($9M AAV)
MLBTR: N/A
It seems highly possible that the Giants will move on from one or both of LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores sometime between now and Opening Day. We can take Pete Alonso out of the equation, which leaves these three to fill the corner. Walker would be very surprising, since it seems unlikely that the Giants will give a multi-year deal to a first baseman with Bryce Eldridge waiting in the wings, but it’s not out of the question, either. They’re sure to prioritize defense, and Walker has won the last three NL Gold Gloves at first base. Eldridge can always start his career at DH or as a corner outfielder.
Goldschmidt and Santana would be decent stopgaps who could help mentor Eldridge on both sides of the field, even though neither player is all that good anymore.
And there you have it. The Giants will probably sign one of these players, and maybe even a few. Some of these players will get contracts that make you open your eyes wide and blink a few times, while others will sign deals that make you angry that Posey and Minasian didn’t come over the top of it. But at least now you know what to expect … so that the unexpected can, invariably, occur.
Last year’s predictions
For some historical data, here are the contract predictions from last year’s article, as well as the figures those players actually got. The predicted contract is the average of the median two projections, based on total money.
Shohei Ohtani
Prediction: 11 years, $520 million
Actual: 10 years, $700 million (heavily deferred)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Prediction: 7 years, $207.5 million
Actual: 12 years, $325 million
Jung Hoo Lee
Prediction: 4 years, $58 million
Actual: 6 years, $113 million
Cody Bellinger
Prediction: 6 years, $156 million
Actual: 3 years, $80 million (opt-out after first year)
Matt Chapman
Prediction: 4.5 years, $110 million
Actual: 3 years, $54 million (opt-out after first year)
Aaron Nola
Prediction: 5.5 years, $145 million
Actual: 7 years, $172 million
Blake Snell
Prediction: 5.5 years, $145 million
Actual: 2 years, $62 million (opt-out after first year)
Jordan Montgomery
Prediction: 5 years, $123 million
Actual: 2 years, $47.5 million (opt-out after first year)
Sonny Gray
Prediction: 3 years, $75 million
Actual: 3 years, $75 million
Eduardo Rodríguez
Prediction: 4 years, $81 million
Actual: 4 years, $80 million
Shōta Imanaga
Prediction: 4.5 years, $76.5 million
Actual: 4 years, $53 million
Marcus Stroman
Prediction: 3 years, $63 million
Actual: 2 years, $37 million