A case for doing nothing, but in a really busy and roundabout way that makes it look like we did a lot

Some thoughts ahead of the trade deadline

There’s a last day of camp energy coming from the clubhouse.

People are finally healthy, people are playing to their full potential and exceeding expectations, people are gelling, and with the trade deadline looming, people don’t want to leave.

It’s like finding out on Saturday morning—with mom and the minivan just hours away for pick-up—that the person you’ve been sharing a bunk with all summer is also a late-60’s British Folk nerd who loves Fairport Convention’s Liege & Leaf just as much as you do. Obviously Sandy Denny is a horribly underrated vocalist, who possesses the vocal power of Grace Slick as well as Nico’s haunting etherealness. How did you not make this connection a month ago? Could we have been vibing this whole time? Wait, did we miss out on something?

The answer is yes. Yes and yes and yes and yes and yes. The 2024 San Francisco Giants did miss out on something—the lineup and rotation is better than their 53-55 record suggests. Exasperated questions should abound.

I know things were rough in the offseason contract negotiations, and I know the pattern of second-half dominance is so established it’s encrypted in your DNA at this point—but Blake Snell, did you have to wait until July to make MLB history?

Or did we need Nick Ahmed as mentor/place-holder before finally feeling comfortable and trusting enough to make Tyler Fitzgerald feel comfortable and trusted at short? And Jorge Soler—was a move to a lead-off spot really necessary in order to find your middle-of-the-order swing?

Unfortunately, the answer to these questions is probably a yes too. Life. Change. Adaptation. Frustrating, yes, that new things don’t work perfectly right from the start, but it shouldn’t leave you flabbergasted. Snell’s career has been one governed by idiosyncrasies. He’s temperamental as all get-out on the mound, constantly shuffling his shoulders between pitches, miming his throwing motion to rediscover the correct arm slot. Soler’s career has also been defined by these pendulum swings. Fitzgerald credits Ahmed’s mentorship to helping him be ready for his starter role, and don’t forget that Fitz’s name was buried below Marco Luciano’s and even Brett Wisely’s to a certain extent. These discoveries take time. The earth had to shake a little before certain players can rise up through the cracks.

On top of all that messy humanness is just the fact that the roster was designed to be a second-half team. Being around .500 and a Wild Card spot when Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb came back was always the plan. Though it got dark a week after the All-Star break, the Giants did somewhat deliver by putting together one of their most well-rounded and dominant performances in a series all year.

Maybe their identity as “buyer” or “contender” isn’t as solid as the pencil pushers or some fans would’ve liked it to be, but the vibes in the clubhouse are riding high. It’s clear to the players what kind of team they are, and they don’t want to see it broken up.

Michael Conforto wants to stick around. Blake Snell is confident that the starting pitching will click against a favorable schedule.

Sean Hjelle predicted that people were going to regret counting the Giants out.

Call it the indomitable human spirit, or the incognizant one. Though I’m encouraged by the tone of these postgame interviews, skepticism feels like a valid interpretation as well. Now the front office has less than 24 hours to decide which one to double-down on.

“Buyer” or “seller” is a false binary. Certain deals might do not fit cleanly into either. Trade deadline identity can be fluid. The Giants can be a little of both, they can also just do nothing, and then they can be “sellers” without “selling out.” So who can be moved without the front office undermining the hopes of their players and completely throwing in the towel?

The white flag trade would be Blake Snell. Even with the rotation depth San Francisco has, a Snell swap smells of seller. I can’t imagine Farhan, who I imagine is desperate to “prove-it”, wants to admit he’s looking ahead to next year because…what if there is no next year?

If the Giants have an edge in this Wild Card scrap, it’s their pitching. Selling one of their most dynamic components to improve their average offense (104 wRC+, 12th in the Majors) is pretty counterintuitive. An ace is priceless when it comes to a playoff push and deep playoff run, with Snell on form the Giants arguably have three rotation toppers. There’s no such thing as an excess when it comes to aces. We’ve been waiting months to see this man kick it into gear. Finally the scheduled programming is on, why change the channel now?

It also might be hard to get a sure-fire return since Snell’s Big Ace value is undermined a bit by the design of his contract. Similarly to Carlos Rodón in 2022, a two month rental for Snell has the added barb of his opt-out for the 2025 season. If he aces it, those two months will be priceless; if he tanks, the new club will be left with a bitter taste in their mouth as well as being a couple high-prospects lighter and stuck with a steep salary for next season when Snell inevitably choses to “figure things out” on their roster.

Obviously, Farhan will happily eat his shoe if trading Snell fetches something obscene from a club desperate and flexible and legit enough like the Orioles—there are some trades you just say ‘yes’ to, especially from a club with as righteous a quest as Baltimore’s.

If the Giants want to “sell” without being labeled as “sellers” (i.e. giver-uppers, failures) it only makes sense to move a bat (unless a club will take Alex Cobb without him throwing a pitch this season).

Wilmer Flores would’ve been an interesting option given his reputation as a lefty-killer which teams like the Red Sox need, but he’s currently on the IL and has had a down year offensively. Doesn’t feel like that’s going to happen.

The only other names that the club is shopping around are Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, and of those two, it’s not much of a competition to who I’d prefer to see go.

Yaz leads Conforto in nearly every offensive category while playing an excellent right field riddled with quirks. Yaz is under team control until 2026 while Conforto is a free agent in November. Yaz is more consistent, fundamentally sound with heads-up baserunning, a 90-feet deterrent to runners, and a disciplined at-bat. He’s got the intangibles, he also brings the very tangible ability for fans like me to buy Giants gear with the name “Yastrzemski” on it.

For some, that last paragraph could be copied and pasted into a persuasive essay on why the Giants should shop Yaz. His play is courting interest, his value never higher after posting a .325/.400/.530 offensive line over his last 30 games. Trading a better player means getting a better return—this is the governing logic of these types of things, but no team is going to break the bank for Yaz alone. He’ll fetch prospects, like a bullpen arm with an ERA in above 3.50 coupled with a which often feels like trading the PB&J you have in your hands for two Lunchables you’ll get from your classmate Bobby “the next time” his parents go to the grocery store.

Yaz doesn’t qualify as a “towel trade” but if San Francisco is interested in making a go of it in 2024, it doesn’t make sense to boot a guy who’s feeling dangerous with a bat in his hands.

Bottom line: I want to keep watching Yaz hit; Conforto—I’m not so sure. He hasn’t done much at the plate since May. Over his last 30 games, he’s hit .221/.327/.430 while in the 10 games since the All-Star break, he’s hit .129 with a .400 OPS. Still trading Conforto won’t fetch much (the Mets, the only team really linked to him, are probably out after acquiring Jesse Winker), but the deal’s benefits would be less about the external return and more about the benefits the roster space provides for internal fixes. If the Giants have learned anything this year from Heliot Ramos or Tyler Fitzgerald, it’s that opportunity often produces pleasant surprises. A Conforto departure means more chances for Luis Matos, or the speedy Derek Hill, or to ride the hot hand of Jerar Encarnación who’s slashed .345/.434/.603 over 136 PA in Triple-A.

But if that’s the only reason for trading someone like Conforto, an established veteran who we’ve seen clobber the snot out a ball, then there’s a legitimate argument to taking your hands off the wheel and letting the whole thing just ride. Matos has struggled at the plate while Encarnación has less than a hundred MLB plate appearances that are more than a year old. Conforto is the devil we know.

For most that type of organizational hand-sitting is unacceptable, especially given the Giants less-than-impressive record these past couple seasons. I don’t think any decision is unacceptable as long as it’s well thought out. Rushing into a Yaz trade with the sole purpose to give off the appearance of activity would be needless tinkering. Holding Conforto at too high a price when the front office is ready to “give Matos the keys” would also be short-sighted, though I don’t think this is the situation given Matos’s ample playing time and persistent struggles.

Conforto (or Flores—call 555-555-1234 if interested) is the only sellable piece in my book, and I doubt whether any of them staying or going will determine whether the Giants dramatically ride off into the sunset this season. That horse is the pitching. It was always going to be the pitching. And as of right now, with Snell’s return to form and Robbie Ray’s debut, it feels like the Giants got a trade deadline face-lift without trading for a face.