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Every year, like clockwork, the clichés descend upon Spring Training right as the players do.
Best shape of his life? — Heard it a million times.
Gonna be a big year? — Already filled out on the bingo card.
But none stand out quite as much as the various permutations of preseason doesn’t matter.
Every game won, winning record achieved, and gaudy individual stat line is instantly chilled by the reminder that none of this matters, really. And every game lost, losing record achieved, and haunted house-esque bloated ERA is, in turn, comforted by the reminder that none of this matters.
I am a frequent abuser of this particular cliché. Just as candy manufacturers live for late October and try to break even the rest of the year, my job as a San Francisco Giants writer is to spend February and March teaching everyone that the preseason doesn’t matter, and then to spend the next 10 months keeping the lights on at this silly little website that Grant Brisbee drunkenly dreamed up (for legal purposes, this is a joke: I have no idea what level of inebriation Grant had reached).
And yet, every year, as I watch us all scribble on the chalkboard time and time again that the preseason doesn’t matter, I remember that we’ve overcorrected, and then we need to steer things back. You see, the preseason does matter. It just doesn’t matter in the same ways that the regular season does.
A prime example of this is Heliot Ramos last year. In the heat of the 2024 Arizona desert, Ramos hit a dismal 2-17 with no extra-base hits, one walk, and five strikeouts. His fellow outfielder, Ismael Munguia, on the other hand hit a blistering 16-39 with four extra-base hits, three walks, and just five strikeouts.
Ramos’ .328 OPS did not offer us a glimpse into his upcoming season, which would feature an All-Star appearance, the first right-handed Splash Hit in Oracle Park history, and a winter spent as the unquestioned starting left fielder on the Giants. Nor did Munguia’s 1.118 OPS offer us a glimpse into his upcoming season, which featured a demotion from AAA to AA and no flirtation with an MLB appearance, and ended with him opting for free agency and signing a Minor League deal elsewhere.
But Ramos’ 19 plate appearances and March 11 optioning did tell us something, especially when held up next to Munguia’s 44 plate appearances and heavy presence in Cactus League games right up until the end of preseason. It told us that Ramos had lost the organization’s faith entirely, and had fallen to the very bottom of the depth chart, something confirmed when Farhan Zaidi called me to see if I was on the IL before reluctantly calling up Ramos (for legal purposes: still a joke).
It’s not all about seeing which players are valued, though. We also learned Tristan Beck was out of the plans because of an injury. We learned Matt Chapman might start slow because it’s hard to join a team during Spring Training and get up to speed. We learned that the Giants would probably try to steal a few more bases and that Sean Hjelle was definitely just a reliever now.
There’s a lot to learn in Spring Training, it’s just usually not hidden in slash lines, ERAs, and winning percentages. So here are seven questions that I have my eyes on as Spring Training nears its start. We should get a decent feel for the answers over the next seven weeks.
Are Tom Murphy and Wilmer Flores healthy?
As currently constructed, the Giants seem to be fairly reliant on Murphy and Flores to form their backup catcher/backup first baseman/designated hitter cadre. This is either the good news or the bad news, depending on what year you use as a frame of reference.
On the one hand, two years ago, Murphy and Flores combined to hit .285/.350/.516 in over 600 plate appearances. They combined to have a slash line shockingly similar to the ones that Mookie Betts and Corey Seager had in 2024.
On the other hand, a year ago, Murphy and Flores combined to hit .194/.268/.306 in under 300 plate appearances. They combined to have a slash line that I could have told you was Curt Casali’s and you wouldn’t have felt the need to fact-check it.
Given the Giants’ lack of depth, I probably don’t need to explain how much it would help if those two were 600 plate appearances of Betts and not 300 plate appearances of Casali.
The pessimistic view is that the best indicator of future performance is recent performance, and the most recent performance for these two is grim. The optimistic view is that both were dealing with serious injuries, so there’s at least an explanation to accompany the results. The pessimistic rebuttal (they always have to get the last word in) is that players well into their 30s with severe lower-body injuries aren’t exactly prime candidates to shake it off and proceed as usual the next year.
It doesn’t seem like the Giants plan to blindly hope both will be healthy. David Villar and Jerar Encarnación survived the offseason in large part to offer assurances if Flores is damaged goods; Sam Huff and Max Stassi were brought in to fill the same role with Murphy.
If Flores and Murphy are healthy, they’re not just deserving of automatic roster spots, but could anchor the heart of a decent lineup. So when the team starts playing games, don’t look at the box scores, look at if those two appear healthy and fluid and, in Murphy’s case, alive.
Of course, that would be easier if the Giants actually broadcast games…
Is there a Nick Ahmed this year?
The Giants have not yet released their list of non-roster invitees. We know that veteran pitcher Joey Lucchesi will be there, along with veteran corner infielder Jake Lamb (underrated storyline: Lamb will be in camp with the Giants, while Santiago Casilla will make an appearance as an instructor).
Last year we heard through the offseason that Luciano would be given the shortstop job. It took about five innings from Ahmed, who was on a Minor League deal, before it became abundantly clear that the job was actually his to lose, not Luciano’s.
Barring an injury, there’s no open everyday position the way there was last year, but there are plenty of roles to fill all around the diamond, for position players and pitchers alike. Will some crafty veteran on a prove-it deal win the heart of either Buster Posey or Bob Melvin?
Does Justin Verlander still have it?
Like Murphy and Flores, Verlander was excellent in 2023 and both injured and awful in 2024. I’m of the belief that he’ll be a valuable addition to the roster regardless of performance, merely because of the mentorship role that he can fill while working with the team’s young arms.
But it sure would be nice if he were an ace of a pitcher, too.
I suspect we’ll find out fairly quickly. We probably won’t know if he’ll be an ace per se, but I’d assume it will quickly be apparent whether he’s a top-of-the-rotation starter or a replacement-level player-coach. Verlander is about as in-tune with his body as any player I can remember, and is open about his physical limitations last year, caused by both injury and improper preparation. I would imagine that you can tell from his facial expressions, body language, and quotes whether he’s feeling encouraged by his performance, or whether he sees the end-of-career writing on the wall.
What’s the backup infield plan?
The starting infield is set. Chapman, Willy Adames, and Tyler Fitzgerald will assume their posts to the left of first base, and they’ll all play there almost every day. LaMonte Wade Jr. will likely platoon at first with Flores and/or Encarnación.
But of course, a backup infielder or two is required.
Last year, the Giants used Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt, and Brett Wisely all over the infield. Second base proved a challenge for Schmitt, third base a challenge for Fitzgerald and Wisely, and shortstop a bit of a disaster for all three.
So now what? It helps that Adames and Chapman are two of the most durable players in baseball, but it’s still malpractice to not have a backup left-side infielder on the roster.
The way the Giants allocate playing time in Spring Training will likely answer some questions. Fitzgerald may be publicly touted as the starting second baseman, but if he’s playing shortstop and third base in Spring Training, it likely means that he’s also in contention for the backup role, with the actual backup being limited to second (or potentially third). That could, potentially, open the door for a Villar or Lamb to make the roster.
If Wisely and Schmitt are still getting reps all over, then the Giants see them as viable backup options, either due to their ability or to the lack of games that would be needed from them. If an Ahmed-type is signed and instantly plays every day, well … I don’t need to spell that one out for you. And of course, there’s another option, which brings us to our next question(s)…
[Insert Marco Luciano question here]
What in the world to make of Luciano? Where do we begin? What questions do we even ask?
He’s on the young side of 23, still would be in many eyes the second-best prospect in the system if he were eligible, and is also out of options and being written off by many. And that’s just the prologue.
The last front office turned Luciano from a shortstop to a second baseman at the halfway point of the season, and from a second baseman to an outfielder at the end of the season. The new front office never really commented on what position he was. Luciano showed up to FanFest saying he had focused mostly on learning left field … while also getting heavy reps at second base, third base, and, yes, shortstop.
What position(s) does Luciano play in Spring Training?
His offensive approach changed dramatically last year, and the results were not good. Now the Giants have replaced Zaidi with Posey, and Pete Putila with Zack Minasian, while adding Randy Winn to oversee the farm.
Is Luciano still passive at the plate, or is he back to being aggressive?
The Giants have been coy about Luciano’s injuries the last few years, but he’s missed significant time and, to my untrained eye, has looked dramatically less fluid and athletic. At FanFest he sounded confident about his physical condition, and the videos from the Giants social media team are encouraging.
Does he look like a fluid and explosive athlete again, and can he stay healthy through the Spring?
In his debut MLB season in 2023, Luciano had an average exit velocity of 93.0 MPH and a maximum exit velocity of 111.8; in 2024, those numbers dipped to 87.9 and 108.1, respectively. To put that in context, of the 252 qualified hitters in the Majors last year, only 13 had an average exit velocity in excess of 93.0 MPH, while 187 exceeded 87.9 MPH.
Is he back to being bat speed and exit velo royalty, or is the one part of his game that always really stood out no longer an elite trait?
We’ll be asking questions about Luciano all year long, but we’ll start to get our first batch of answers very soon.
Who can will play center field?
The Giants entered last year with Jung Hoo Lee as their starting center fielder, and Tyler Fitzgerald as the backup. It was a decent enough plan, until Lee suffered a season-ending injury and Fitzgerald was called back home to be a permanent infielder.
Bob Melvin distrusted Mike Yastrzemski so much in center field that he put Luis Matos there instead, and Matos played so poorly that Melvin put Heliot Ramos there instead, and Ramos played so poorly that the Giants called up Grant McCray when he should have still been in AA.
Lee is, thankfully, fully healthy and will hopefully be a staple in center all year long. But the Giants have, hopefully, learned their lesson on that front. And yet, with Spring Training about to start, the only center fielders on the roster are Lee and McCray. The future may be bright for McCray, but he’s still played all of 97 games in the upper Minors, and had a 43.1% strikeout rate in the Majors last year … of the 455 MLB players with at least 100 plate appearances last year, that strikeout rate was not only the highest, but bested the next-highest mark by 3.4 percentage points. He simply cannot be considered a legitimate Opening Day option, and deserves to be somewhere where he can play every day.
But someone other than Lee has to play in center field occasionally, and we’ll soon learn who the Giants think is worth putting out there. Will Ramos and Matos and Wade Meckler get second (or third) opportunities to prove they can play in the middle of the grass? Will Yastrzemski get to reprise the role? Will Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely become the emergency options? Will a non-roster invitee show up in camp and earn a role? Will they trade for Austin Slater? Can Bryce Eldridge play out there?
We probably won’t learn who can play center field well, but we’ll at least start to get a feel for who the Giants believe has a chance to play out there. And I’m fascinated, because I simply have no clue.
What is Kyle Harrison’s fastball velocity?
2024 was either a wildly encouraging or deeply concerning season for Harrison, the team’s consensus top prospect at the start of the year. His development took an almost entirely unprecedented turn, zigging and zagging from out-of-control strikeout artist to fully-in-control game manager.
Consider: In 2023 in AAA, Harrison had 105 strikeouts and 48 walks. In 2024 in the Majors, he had 118 strikeouts and 42 walks.
And then consider: in 2023 in AAA, Harrison pitched 65.2 innings. In 2024 in the Majors, he pitched 124.1.
After posting Minor League strikeout and walk numbers that would have been the best and the worst in the Majors, respectively, by a massive margin, Harrison settled into his first full big league season with a worse-than-average strikeout rate and a better-than-average walk rate.
Highly confounding, and at least in part explained by a notable dip in fastball velocity.
The question then for Harrison is whether he was absorbing the old cliché of learning to pitch instead of throw, or if he simply lost some life on his pitches. If the former, there’s reason to believe that he can now start to dial things up. In a recent interview with The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, new pitching coach J.P. Martinez stated that he believes in letting pitchers gas themselves out rather than slow-play to eat innings. Speaking of Jordan Hicks, Martinez told Baggarly this:
With Jordan, part of my messaging to him has been to close out every inning. Like, you’re a closer at heart, right? So close out every single inning of the game. There’s no pacing out our energy to get through six (innings). It’s like, “Go hard out of the gate. You’ll build that endurance as you go. And we’ll take care of you. We’ll keep eyes on you and if anything is awry, we’ll troubleshoot from there.”
If Harrison shows up in Scottsdale throwing gas — even with a few more walks than are ideal — then there’s reason to be excited that the historically-great strikeout prospect he once was is ready to arrive at a big league park near you. And if not, well, we may have to prepare ourselves for a backend control starter as Harrison’s destination.