First news came down that the A’s were engaged with Lawrence Butler in a possible contract extension. The A’s and their fans would love to see Butler in an Oakramentvasland uniform into his 30s; the question remains whether the two sides can find that sweet spot that works financially for both.
Then A’s GM David Forst suggested that the team was actually talking to “multiple players” around possible extensions, declining to name names but expanding the supposed list from “1” to “more than 1”.
We know it’s not just all happy talk because already one key player, Brent Rooker, has indeed signed a new contract that will keep him with the A’s beyond his free agent year. So those conversations appear to be in earnest with mutual interest.
With regard to Butler, and other players with whom the A’s might be exploring a “contract extension,” presumably any such deal would run past the player’s eligible free agency year. I say that because “buying out arbitration years” isn’t an “extension,” just a restructuring of the 6 years of service time that lead to free agency.
So today we ponder which other player(s) might be on the A’s radar, what the pros and cons of each would be, and what an extension might look like. As you will see, it’s far from an exact science — more of a high stakes guessing game.
In alphabetical order, here are the most logical candidates:
Zack Gelof
Pros:
– In 2023, Gelof showed how high his ceiling is, posting a .267/.337/.504 (132 wRC+) line while providing solid defense at 2B in 69 games. Projected over a full season that translated to 6.3 WAR.
– If you decide to bet on Gelof long term, the time has never been better to make a deal after a hugely disappointing 2024 that included a 34.4% K rate.
– Despite the big step back, Gelof showed how high his floor is by parlaying a .211/.270/.362 slash line into a 1.4 WAR season on the strength of decent power (17 HR), excellent base running (25 SB), and continued good defense up the middle.
Cons:
– It wasn’t just the stats, it was the process: In 2024 Gelof swung through a lot of fastballs in the zone, chased a lot of sliders out of the zone, and continued to flail against the LHPs a RH batter normally loves to face — and by flail I mean .138/.240/.239 (44 wRC+). It remains to be seen whether or not 2023 was a mirage on the level of Travis Buck.
What do you think an extension would look like for Gelof, and would you say yes or no if you were the A’s GM?
Shea Langeliers
Pros:
– Though he has his faults, catcher is a weak position across MLB right now and when graded on a curve Langeliers rates pretty well. He’s also athletic for a catcher and likely to age well into his 30s. The power and arm are a given and right there you have a Mike Zunino type anchor with plenty of room to grow from there.
– If the A’s were to work out an extension that reflected Langeliers’ 2024 stats they would probably get a bargain since all the advanced metrics concluded he was particularly unlucky with his batted ball profile. Langeliers’ wOBA was .315 but his xwOBA was .328. You would love to pay for the first but get the second.
– Changes ahead in MLB could benefit Langeliers greatly. He is, simply put, terrible at framing but if the ABS system takes hold it will take one of Shea’s worst flaws and render it relatively unimportant.
Cons:
– Let’s start with a career batting average, after 2 full seasons, of .215 and a career OBP of .276. Langeliers may have been quite unlucky on some of his line drives but he also swings through a lot of high fastballs and chases a lot of bad sliders. You wonder just how much of a commitment the A’s will want to make to a hitter whose BA and OBP are that low.
– Langeliers’ other big defensive weakness is no trifling matter, and that is his terrible form and worse results blocking balls in the dirt. He has the athleticism to move his body and we are talking about a very teachable skill, but nonetheless we’re 2 years in and the data is a bit alarming.
What do you think an extension would look like for Miller, and would you say yes or no if you were the A’s GM?
Mason Miller
Pros:
– There is no question Miller has star potential. Heck around baseball he is already considered to be a star even though he has moved to the bullpen with no particular plan to return him to the rotation. If you were to lock Miller up on an affordable deal beyond 2029 you might have a stud for ordinary prices who, at the very least, gives you a “lock down closer” to build around. Miller accrued 2.3 WAR in 2024 just as a reliever.
– If you’re thinking about the seemingly inevitable TJS, in a way an extension mitigates against it by essentially factoring it in. You would be paying a doable amount for, say, 8 years in which you expected to get 6. On a fair deal the team gets more than its money’s worth over those 6 seasons.
Cons:
– In the sense that Miller’s arm is a ticking time bomb, it’s not in any way assured that worst case scenario is “one TJS and dominance before and after”. As Rich Harden demonstrated, injuries can be followed by more injuries, and full recoveries from arm/shoulder maladies are not guaranteed. (In particular, thoracic outlet syndrome often produces a permanent loss in velocity and can derail a career entirely.)
– Miller ceiling coming up in the minors was sky high: basically that of an ace SP. Now it seems increasingly likely that his ceiling will wind up being “an elite closer” and while that is plenty valuable it pales in comparison to 180 IP of ace pitching out of the rotation.
What do you think an extension would look like for Miller, and would you say yes or no if you were the A’s GM?
Tyler Soderstrom
Pros:
– This is a great time to bet on Soderstrom as he has yet to establish himself as an MLB success but hopes to do just that in 2025. An extension would probably be pretty affordable, yet Soderstrom’s ceiling has always been that of a legitimate middle-of-the-order masher.
– While he frustrated coaches and fans some in his early 20s, in 2024 he showed glimpses of emerging. His BB rate was excellent (9.4%), he showed he can handle big league pitching (114 wRC+), and he did his best work at the end of the season. He is a prime candidate for a “breakout season”.
Cons:
– Soderstrom is limited by his defense. He struggled at the premium position of catcher and is now at 1B, where his defense rated a tick below average in 2024. Even if he improves, likely his defensive ceiling is to be average at a position that is not premium.
– Locking up Soderstrom long term creates a question of where he will fit in, as every indicator suggests Nick Kurtz will be a fast mover and will force his way on to the big league roster at 1B sooner rather than later. You wouldn’t want to invest too much in a DH, especially when you just invested in one for the same years.
What do you think an extension would look like for Soderstrom, and would you say yes or no if you were the A’s GM?
Jacob Wilson
Now and again teams bet on a player before they have proven anything at the big league level. Jon Singleton comes to mind and it didn’t go well. But if the A’s want to be a bit on the “zag” side they could look at a long-term deal for Wilson while he is still a career .250/.314/.315 hitter with 28 games under his belt.
Pros:
– Wilson has come to camp bulked up and ready to prove he can drive the ball, and really the biggest concern around him is lack of slugging. He may have addressed that issue through training/diet, and he certainly didn’t struggle with slugging the minors (.606 SLG across all levels). A high BA, slick fielding SS who can drive the ball enough is a legitimate star.
– Opinions vary on Wilson, but there are plenty of scouts, pundits, and projection systems that think he’s a guy to bet on. 4 of 8 Fangraphs projections have Wilson at 119 wRC+ in 2025, and many analysts see him as a possible Rookie of the Year candidate.
Cons:
– Despite his pedigree and bloodlines, defensive reputation and elite contact skills, Wilson comes with risk. His exit velocities are low, outfields already play him very shallow, his defense was not “all that” in his MLB cup of coffee, and he has already succumbed to two different soft tissue injuries. He might be a guy you would want to wait on to see who he really is, even if it means a higher price tag.
What do you think an extension would look like for Wilson, and would you say yes or no if you were the A’s GM?
So there’s 5 extension candidates to consider what it might take and whether or not it’s the right investment for a team that isn’t the Dodgers or the Mets and has to use resources wisely. I look forward to hearing your thoughts!